Here are eight predictions for the coming year in accordance with a hallowed tradition that I have previously not honored. If some of the supporting facts below seem unfamiliar, it could be because they have not received the attention they deserve. But they are real.
First, some good news about the U.S. economy:
— Inflation will likely continue to fall until it becomes obvious that it is no longer a serious concern. Inflation (as measured by the Consumer Price Index) has already fallen precipitously over the last five months; annualized inflation has been 2.5% (July through November), as compared with 11.8% for the preceding five months (February through June). If this looks surprising, it’s because the number most reported in the media is for November 2021-November 2022, which is 7.1%. This is true, but not as informative about what's been happening more recently.
