There may have been only one person on Spring Street revelling in the latest polling data: John Pesutto.
Just days ago, the leader of the Victorian Liberal party was bracing for a potential leadership challenge. But the figures published in the Herald Sun on Thursday paint a hopeful picture for him and the Coalition, which has overtaken Labor and is in an election-winning position for the first time in seven years.
There are now suggestions the mooted spill planned for next week won’t go ahead.
The poll, conducted by Redbridge, is the party’s best result since June 2017 – and has been described by Pesutto as “evidence” that his strategy of keeping the Coalition firmly in the centre is paying off.
“There is obviously now growing evidence that the Victorian people are responding positively to the messages and the proposals that my colleagues and I are promoting,” he said on Thursday.
Since Pesutto took on the leadership of the party in the wake of a crushing defeat at the 2022 election, he has maintained the Coalition can only return to government by winning back traditional “small-L” liberals and winning over moderate Victorians currently voting for Labor.
This has led to friction between Pesutto and the party’s conservative wing, which believes the Liberals should move further to the right – even if it costs seats such as Brighton, Hawthorn and Kew.
They accuse Pesutto of lacking boldness, being “Labor-lite” and a mouthpiece for figures such as Jeff Kennett and Ted Baillieu – who they argue are relics of a bygone era (although they are the only two Liberal figures to have won government in Victoria in recent decades).
It is a view shared by the likes of Sky News presenter Peta Credlin and former Liberal MP Tim Smith, who wrote in the Age this week that a “handful of elites” were “controlling the Liberal Party in Victoria”.
This same group has also been unable to forgive Pesutto for moving to expel Moira Deeming from the party room, arguing he only did so because she was a conservative.
They have capitalised on Deeming’s subsequent defamation proceedings against Pesutto as a reason for planning a coup against him when parliament resumes next week.
Yet as the week unfolded, expectations began to temper.
Those loyal to Pesutto point to the polling and note it was conducted between 26 September and 3 October, during the defamation trial.
They say voters simply weren’t paying attention to the trial, and instead focus on the cost of living, the government’s growing debt and the state of roads, hospitals and schools.
“I haven’t really tuned into the trial but on the occasions I have, there are only about 1,000 people on the live stream,” one Liberal MP says.
“Once you take out the lawyers, journalists, staffers and a small group of people who are very invested, how many people are actually watching or caring?”
Another Liberal MP says: “There are double income families walking into food banks. They don’t care about anything other than keeping a roof over their heads as their bills and mortgage rise”.
Some conservatives, however, say the polling only demonstrates voter fatigue with a three-term Labor government.
“There’s nothing in there to suggest Pesutto is convincing people to vote Liberal,” one MP said.
The prospect that there could be a judgment in the defamation case before Christmas has changed the timeline, they note.
“I think there was initially some urgency because the trial was extended by a couple of weeks, and there was fear it would drag into the next year and closer to the federal election,” the MP says.
But there is a middle group of members who remain sceptical of both Pesutto’s leadership and the alternatives on offer – including Kim Wells and Chris Crewther, whose names have been raised as possible contenders.
While disgruntled MPs may still be able to gather the five votes needed to move a motion to spill the leadership on Tuesday, most seem to think anyone other than Pesutto will struggle to get more than “single digits”.
This has likely scared off other, perhaps more popular, candidates from being connected to the coup.
“If it happens, it will be Michael O’Brien v Brad Battin 2.0,” an MP loyal to Pesutto said, in reference to a failed spill in 2021 that destabilised the party and led to another successful attempt by Matthew Guy six months later.
A conservative MP also suggests a spill before Christmas is “highly likely”.
Jacinta Allan and Labor may be enjoying the spectacle – and they have done little media as the trial and fallout continues – but those within her caucus are cautioning against complacency.
They have been assured more is coming on the policy front, particularly around housing, in an effort to win back voters before 2026.
