Gas use needs to be cut to achieve the Andrews government’s target to reduce emissions by at least 75% by 2035, with analysis from Environment Victoria finding the closure of coal-fired power plants won’t be enough to meet the goal.
The non-for-profit’s report, being released on Tuesday, found closing the state’s coal-fired power plants and reaching 95% renewable energy by 2035 will still leave a substantial “emissions gap” of 18-24m tonnes of carbon pollution that will need to be met by other sectors – predominately gas.
Gas is usually described as having about half the emissions of coal when burned, though studies have found its impact on the climate is greater than this, once methane leaks during extraction and transport are factored in.
Victoria is the country’s largest consumer of gas, with more than 2m households and small businesses using it largely for heating, as well as for hot water and cooking.
Burning gas produces about 16% of the state’s total emissions, with households and small businesses responsible for almost two-thirds of those emissions.
According to Environment Victoria analysis, if the current rate of gas consumption continues, then gas burned in homes and small businesses will be responsible for between 29% and 37% of the state’s emissions by 2035.
If consumption only declines slightly, after the Australian Energy Market Operator’s “progressive change” scenario, then gas will be responsible for between 22% and 28% of Victoria’s emissions.
The report also analyses the total gas sector emissions under Victoria’s new 2035 climate targets, based on fuel supplier Viva Energy’s gas import terminal proposal, which is currently awaiting environmental approval.
Under the plan, Viva Energy will extend a pier at the refinery and park a floating vessel that could receive cargoes of super-chilled liquefied natural gas (LNG) and turn it back into vapour for Victorian homes and businesses.
If consumption follows the forecast of the fuel supplier’s proposal, then the sector would be responsible for nearly half (45%) of Victorian emissions in 2035, Environment Victoria found.
“The volume of gas Viva plans to import (160 petajoules) would by itself be responsible for one-third (37%) of Victoria’s emissions in 2035,” the report said.
Environment Victoria’s chief executive, Jono La Nauze, has called on the government to reject the proposal.
“The Andrews government should reject LNG import terminal proposals that are based on high levels of gas consumption continuing for decades,” he said.
“Our research shows these proposals are incompatible with achieving Victoria’s new climate targets and would place a greater burden on other sectors of the economy to reduce emissions.”
Prior to last year’s state election, the government announced a new target of reducing greenhouse gases emissions by 75-80% (on 2005 levels) by 2035 and brought forward its plan to reach net zero by five years to 2045.
It also released a roadmap to phase out gas in July, which included a commitment to develop new incentives for households to replace gas water heating and space heating with efficient, low-emissions electric equipment while phasing out incentives for all gas products by the end of this year.
The roadmap also recommended removing the requirement for all new builds to be connected to the gas network.
Environment Victoria has urged the government to update its roadmap with more urgent timeframes and ambitious targets – including a ban on all new gas connections by 2028 “at the latest”.
It also recommends launching a large-scale public education campaign exposing the climate and health dangers of gas and establishing a program that helps households with the upfront costs of switching from gas to electric appliances.
La Nauze said such programs should target low-income households, who might struggle to afford the upfront costs of upgrading their homes to become all-electric.
“Victorian households are already struggling with high gas prices and this new report adds urgency to the need to get off gas as quickly as possible,” he said.
“The best thing we can do for our health, our planet and household budgets is to get off gas as soon as possible.”
