Victoria election 2022 report card, week four: a debate, the challenge for pollsters and the sprint to the finish line

Premier Daniel Andrews and opposition Liberal leader Matthew Guy at the 2022 Victorian state election leaders debate. Photograph: Ian Currie/AAP

Margaret Simons, journalist and academic

We are down to the wire. The polls are different enough to cause anxiety all round, but they agree on the trends: an increased vote for the Greens, independents and minor parties, and a turn away from Labor – though not enough to mean defeat.