Venezuela is poised for a historic vote on Sunday, July 28 that could bring the 11-year reign of the country’s authoritarian president, Nicolás Maduro, to an end – and with it, the widespread sense of hopelessness that has sparked a mass exodus from the country.
Of all the elections taking place around the world in 2024, the outcome of Venezuela’s is one of the hardest to predict. This is not because an opposition win is in question – they are ahead in the polls by a significant margin. Rather, it is because dictators do not relinquish power without a fight.
Maduro has strongly signalled his determination to retain the top job. In a campaign event on July 17, he warned that Venezuela would fall “into a bloodbath, into a fratricidal civil war” if he didn’t win the election.
