It shouldn’t be difficult to talk a bettor out of a long shot. Show them the odds, provide a bit of historical context and find a different wager.
For instance, there isn’t a reason for casual bettors to put money down on Vanderbilt to win, well, anything this football season. The program is 1-24 in the SEC dating back to 2019 and has since swapped out head coach Derek Mason for Clark Lea. In his first season last year, Lea went 2-10 with his only victories coming against Colorado State and UConn.
East Tennessee State outscored the Commodores by 20 points in the season opener. Eventual national champion Georgia defeated Vandy, 62-0. When all was said and done, Vanderbilt’s strength of schedule ranked 38th last year, per ESPN. Things will only get harder this year. The Commodores’ 2022 schedule is considered the third-toughest in the country—behind only Auburn and Mississippi State.
But Vanderbilt apparently has something those are two schools don’t: Significantly high expectations.
SEC preseason media poll
East
1. Georgia (172 1st place votes)
2. Kentucky (4)
3. Tennessee (1)
4. Florida
5. South Carolina (3)
6. Missouri
7. Vanderbilt (1)West
1. Alabama (177)
2. Texas A&M (3)
3. Arkansas (1)
4. Ole Miss
5. LSU
6. Mississippi State
7. Auburn— Brett McMurphy (@Brett_McMurphy) July 22, 2022
Vandy somehow earned a first-place vote to win the SEC East (you know, the division that includes that aforementioned Georgia team) as well as the conference title game. Sadly, we do not know which media member cast this vote.
It’s safe to say this unexpected news did not impact betting lines. At Tipico, Vanderbilt is +50000 to win the SEC—the longest odds in the conference and notably longer than Mizzou (+30000), which has the second-worst odds.
A $100 bet on the Commodores could win $50,000, but it would mainly just lose you $100.
Considering teams have to win games to win their conference, and considering Tipico set Vandy’s win total line at 2.5, no one should consider this bet.
In fact, we reached out to FTW’s lone Vanderbilt fan on staff for comment on both the team’s conference title odds and it receiving a first-place vote in the media poll. His response has been published in full below:
“Lol.” — Christian D’Andrea, Vanderbilt MPP ’08 and former editor of Anchor of Gold, a Commodores website.
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