Running was en vogue across the NFL in 2022, as the league-wide pass rate hit an 11-year low.
It was a banner year for rushing efficiency: Yards per carry hit an all-time high (4.5) and we saw the highest average rushing yards per game since 1987 (121.6). Along the way, 16 players recorded at least 1,000 rushing yards, which matched the 2019 and 2012 seasons for the most since 2010.
Many of those players are primed to hit that milestone again, while some will fall short. And then there are newcomers, like Falcons rookie Bijan Robinson, who could join the fray. Of course, drafting a 1,000-yard rusher can only help your fantasy squad.
Using SI Sportsbook’s odds for the regular-season rushing leader as a baseline, let’s predict the 1,000-yard rushers for 2023.
(Note: There are no odds available for Dalvin Cook, who remains a free agent. He has run for over 1,100 yards each of the last four seasons but it’s impossible to project his 2023 output before knowing what jersey he’ll be wearing. Cook has been tied to the Patriots, Dolphins and Jets.)
Nick Chubb, Browns (+650)
Chubb has gone over 1,000 yards four years in a row and he’s coming off a career-best campaign in which he racked up 1,528 yards on the ground. With Kareem Hunt out of the picture, there’s very little competition for carries in Cleveland. Even if the Browns pass more often, Chubb should still easily log close to 300 carries; a workload like that for a runner of his caliber makes 1,000 yards practically a shoo-in. He’s the favorite to win his first rushing title for a reason.
Jonathan Taylor, Colts (+700)
Taylor was unable to defend his 2022 rushing title as he appeared in just 11 games due to injury. He finished with 861 yards on the ground, less than half of his total the previous season. However, his 78.3 yards per game was the fifth-best mark in the NFL and it put him on pace for over 1,3000 yards had he played the full year. The arrival of dual-threat rookie quarterback Anthony Richardson in Indianapolis might take some touches away from Taylor, but he’s still set to tote the ball at least 250 times.
Derrick Henry, Titans (+800)
Henry is a two-time rushing champ who’s led the league in attempts three times, most recently in 2022. He turned 29 in January but he’s showing no signs of slowing down after he romped for 1,538 rushing yards last year, second only to Josh Jacobs. Even with the addition of DeAndre Hopkins, the Titans know not to go away from their bread and butter: Hand it off to Henry 20-plus times per game and get out of the way. Henry surpassed 1,000 yards in each of his last four full seasons and he nearly did so in just eight games in 2021.
Bijan Robinson, Falcons (+1100)
That Robinson’s odds are this short tells you everything you need to know about him as a prospect and the Falcons’ offensive philosophy. Only Chicago (56%) ran at a higher rate than Atlanta (55%) a year ago while Robinson rushed for 1,580 yards, the sixth-most in the nation, in his final season at Texas. He was drafted eighth, the earliest a running back has gone since Saquon Barkley in 2018, one year after Arthur Smith’s offense turned fifth-rounder Tyler Allgeier into a 1,000-yard rusher. Robinson is set up for success as the Falcons’ focal point.
Saquon Barkley, Giants (+1200)
Barkley just had his best (and healthiest) campaign since he was a rookie. His 1,312 rushing yards set a new career-high and were good for fourth-most in the NFL. Barkley has finished with at least 1,000 yards every time he’s recorded 200-plus carries. This season should be no different and the Giants have plenty of motivation to lean heavily on their best offensive weapon after they used the franchise tag to retain him.
Josh Jacobs, Raiders (+1200)
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The only player in the last 15 years who led the league in rushing in back-to-back seasons is Henry, so the odds are against Jacobs, the 2022 champ, doing so. But 1,000 yards feels like the floor. Jacobs exploded for 1,653 yards, a career-high, for his third 1,000-yard season in four years. The Raiders’ decision to bring him back on the franchise tag signals their intent to force feed him touches once again — last season Jacobs accounted for 79% of the team's rushing attempts, which led the NFL.
Miles Sanders, Panthers (+1600)
Sanders’ 259 carries and 1,269 rushing yards last season were both career-highs. That production earned him the largest running back contract on the free-agent market from the Panthers. His situation in Carolina is a downgrade from Philadelphia, largely due to a lesser offensive line. However, he’ll have less competition for carries without a dual-threat quarterback like Jalen Hurts in the backfield. Sanders had never recorded more than 200 carries or topped 1,000 yards until last season, but his career average of five yards per carry is a positive indicator of his rushing ability.
Kenneth Walker III, Seahawks (+1700)
Walker topped 1,000 yards in just 15 games as a rookie behind a below-average offensive line. His propensity for chunk plays (10 runs of 20-plus yards) helped make up for a troublesome success rate. While the addition of second-round running back Zach Charbonnet may cut into his workload somewhat, if Walker plays a full season he should still see more than enough carries to build on a promising first year.
Rhamondre Stevenson, Patriots (+1700)
Stevenson took over as the lead back in New England as a sophomore to the tune of 1,040 yards at five yards per clip. Damien Harris’s departure means even more work will be coming Stevenson’s way this season. There are several underlying statistics that support an even bigger breakout for Stevenson in 2023 (such as his yards after contact and broken tackle numbers) but simply an increased opportunity share is the biggest reason to bank on even better numbers in 2023.
Tony Pollard, Cowboys (+2000)
Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports
Pollard had the second-fewest attempts of any 1,000-yard rusher in 2022. He toted the ball just 193 times — 38 fewer than former teammate Ezekiel Elliott, who remains a free agent. Despite the disparity in opportunity, Pollard outgained Elliott by more than 100 yards on the ground. Now, Pollard is set to take over as the Cowboys’ full-time starter. Don’t expect his workload to increase all that much, though. Pollard’s efficiency is what makes him stand out, so he’ll make the most of his 200 or so rushes.
Christian McCaffrey, 49ers (+2500)
McCaffrey just had his second-best season as a runner despite the midseason trade from the Panthers to the 49ers. More importantly, he did not miss a game for the first time since 2019. The 49ers will work in Elijah Mitchell and their other backs, but they didn’t shell out that package of picks to not lean on CMC. In his last three healthy campaigns, McCaffrey has finished with at least 1,000 yards on the ground, not to mention what he adds through the air. If San Francisco’s quarterback situation ends up being as spotty as it seems, look for the team to run at an even higher rate than last year.
Justin Fields, Bears (+2500)
Fields’ 1,143 rushing yards in 2022 were the second-most in a single season by a quarterback in NFL history. He led the league in yards per carry (7.1) and had three games with at least 100 yards on the ground. The Bears’ second-leading rusher, David Montgomery, left in free agency and though D’Onta Foreman was brought in to fill that gap, the expectation is that Fields will still lead Chicago’s ground game. Even if the overall rushing rate drops, Fields’s efficiency and breakaway speed should allow him to breach 1,000 yet again.
Aaron Jones, Packers (+2800)
Jones finished with a career-best 1,121 yards a season ago for his third 1,000-yard campaign in the last four years. He averages better than five yards per carry for his career and accordingly he’s hit 1,000 yards every time he’s recorded at least 200 rushing attempts. The Packers may look to lean on Jones and his backfield counterpart, AJ Dillon, more this season as the raw Jordan Love takes over for Aaron Rodgers. Jones will turn 29 in December but he’ll continue to enjoy the benefits of running behind one of the league’s best offensive lines.
Najee Harris, Steelers (+2800)
Harris ran for over 1,000 yards as a rookie in 2021 and again in 2022. He also averaged worse than four yards per carry both years. More than any other running back in the league, Harris is a bet on volume. He has 578 carries in two seasons, the most in the NFL over that stretch. Even though Harris’ production is lacking, he’s still bound to rack up stats with that many opportunities. The Steelers’ invested in their offensive line in the draft and in free agency, which should help out Harris, who had one of the lowest average yards before contact in the league each of the last two years.
Summary
That’s 14 players projected to hit 1,000 yards in 2023, two fewer than last year. If that happened, it would be the third-most 1,000-yard rushers in a single season in the last decade.
The biggest threat to any of these candidates is, of course, injury but Jacobs and Barkley’s situations should both be monitored. Both Pro Bowlers sought long-term contracts from their respective teams and did not receive them prior to Monday’s deadline. Both players have already threatened to hold out and Barkley mentioned the possibility of sitting out the entire season in an interview Wednesday.
Three notable names missing from this list are Breece Hall (+1600), Joe Mixon (+1800) and Travis Etienne Jr. (+2200). Mixon and Etienne have both broken 1,000 yards before and Hall was on pace to do so before his injury.
Hall (ACL) is beginning training camp on the PUP list. There’s no guarantee he’s available for Week 1 or that he’s immediately the same electric player he was before the injury. Mixon averaged the second-fewest yards per game of his career (58.1) in 2022 and agreed to return to the team with a pay cut. He’s also only played a full season once in his six-year career. And in Etienne’s case, the Jaguars reportedly plan to lessen his workload. The addition of Tank Bigsby in the third round supports that intention, not to mention Jacksonville’s offensive line took a step back this offseason.
