US Thanksgiving Panic Looms: Turkey Supply Falls to Lowest Level Since 1985, Sending Prices Up by 40%

Wholesale turkey prices have surged to $1.32 per pound — a 40% rise from last year — as bird flu outbreaks disrupt supply, turning the holiday bird into a costly symbol of inflation and financial strain for families preparing their Thanksgiving meals. (Credit: Freepik)

The United States is entering Thanksgiving with its smallest turkey supply in 40 years. The decline has pushed wholesale prices sharply upward, and industry experts say the situation reflects deeper weaknesses in the national food system.

The American Farm Bureau confirmed that only 194.5 million turkeys were raised commercially in 2025. This represents a 3 percent decrease from 2024 and the lowest figure since 1985. Officials attribute the decline to the highly pathogenic avian influenza that has circulated since 2022. Fresh outbreaks this month affected more than 514,000 birds, according to an analysis from Axios.