The US Federal Reserve is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged at its July policy meeting despite inflation climbing to its highest level in three years, according to market pricing and Reuters calculations based on futures trading.
Investors trimmed expectations of a July rate increase after the latest inflation data, with CME Group's Fed funds futures indicating roughly a 30% probability of a hike at the July 28-29 meeting, down from nearly 40% earlier in the day. However, markets continue to assign a strong likelihood—around 80%—that policymakers will raise rates at their September 15-16 meeting, reflecting concerns that inflation remains well above the central bank's target.
