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Robert Muggah, Richard von Weizsäcker Fellow na Bosch Academy e Co-fundador, Instituto Igarapé; Princeton University

US squeeze on Venezuela won’t bring about rapid collapse of Maduro – in fact, it might boomerang on Washington

A man rides past a poster of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and an anti-tank barricade in Caracas on Oct. 28, 2025. Juan Barreto/AFP via Getty Images

The U.S. military buildup along South America’s northern rim is, Washington insists, aimed at “narco-terrorists.” A growing chorus of analysts aren’t convinced; they suspect what the Trump administration is really after is regime change in Venezuela.

Nicolás Maduro, the country’s leader since 2013, is taking no chances. In recent weeks he responded to the Trump administration’s moves as if invasion were imminent. After a September emergency decree and martial rhetoric about a “republic in arms,” the Venezuelan president says militias and reservists are now mobilized nationwide.

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