Public support for same-sex marriage and nondiscrimination protections for LGBTQ+ Americans has fallen, even as the overall share remains high, according to new findings by the nonpartisan Public Religion Research Institute.
Broad majorities of Americans, regardless of political party or faith, continue to support LGBTQ+ rights and protections, the analysis found. But after years of rising public support, the decline is notable, said Melissa Deckman, CEO of the PRRI.
The survey analyzed Americans’ attitudes toward LGBTQ+ rights across three policies: same-sex marriage, nondiscrimination protections and religion-based service refusals. It found support for all three measures had softened for the first time since the PRRI began tracking views of the issues nearly a decade ago.
While the “vast majority of Americans continue to endorse protections for LGBTQ Americans”, Deckman said the results may serve as a “warning sign” for those working to safeguard the rights of LGBTQ+ Americans amid a conservative legislative and legal effort to erode them.
“There was an expectation over the past few years that support for LGBTQ+ rights was gradually growing stronger among all sectors of American society and, in fact, up until last year, our own American Values Atlas found that support was gradually rising if not staying steady across a number of indicators,” she said. “This is really the first time we’ve seen a decline in support.”
According to its findings:
Support for same-sex marriage slipped from 69% of Americans in 2022 to 67% in 2023.
Support for policies that protect LGBTQ+ Americans from discrimination in employment, housing and public discrimination fell from 80% in 2022 to 76% in 2023.
Opposition to allowing businesses to refuse services to LGBTQ+ Americans on religious grounds dropped from 65% of Americans in 2022 to 60% in 2023.
The analysis also identified a strong correlation between those who adhere to Christian nationalism – a once-fringe belief that the US was founded as a Christian nation and its laws should reflect Christian values – and opposition to policies protecting LGBTQ+ rights.
The changes were largely driven by a shift in conservative attitudes toward LGBTQ+ protections.
Slightly fewer Republicans said they favored laws protecting LGBTQ+ Americans from discrimination in 2023 than did in 2015, despite rising support in the intervening years. The decline was especially notable between 2022, when two in three Republicans backed such protections, and 2023, when the share dropped to roughly six in 10.
Americans overwhelmingly agree same-sex couples should have the legal right to marry, a majority that has grown notably stronger since 2014, when the PRRI began tracking the issue. But in 2023, support for the constitutional right declined among Republicans, down to 47% from 49% in 2022. There was also a 2% decrease among independent voters, from 73% in 2022 to 71% a year later.
The findings, based on interviews with more than 22,000 adults conducted by the PRRI throughout 2023 as part of its American Values Atlas, come amid a worrying legal and political landscape for the LGBTQ+ community.
Public support for LGBTQ+ rights soared following the supreme court’s 2015 ruling that established a constitutional right to same-sex marriage. In response, social conservatives have orchestrated a well-funded backlash to the expansion of rights for LGBTQ+ Americans, waging an aggressive campaign against the trans community as a way to rally the Republican base.
The survey, Deckman said, “reminds us that you can’t necessarily expect [support for] hard-fought rights for some Americans to continue going up in perpetuity. Nor can you expect that even when a strong majority of Americans support your views … that that’s enough to protect the legal rights of LGBTQ+ Americans.”
The supreme court last year ruled that a Colorado web designer had the right under the first amendment to refuse to design wedding websites for same-sex couples despite a state law forbidding discrimination against gay people. The dissenting liberal justices warned the conservative-majority’s decision was a “license to discriminate”.
In the high court’s consequential 2022 decision overturning Roe v Wade, conservative justice Clarence Thomas suggested it reconsider Lawrence v Texas, the 2003 case that invalidated sodomy laws across the country and Obergefell v Hodges, the 2015 case that established the right for same-sex couples to marry.
At the state level, Republican-led legislatures have enacted a sweeping array of new laws banning gender-affirming care for transgender youth and, in some cases, adults as well as placing new controls on gender expression in schools from the pronouns students use to the sports teams they play on, the books they can read and the bathrooms they are allowed to use. Several states have also moved to restrict drag performances.
As part of its analysis, the PRRI survey also offered a detailed portrait on LGBTQ+ Americans. According to the findings, more than one in 10 Americans identified as part of the LGBTQ+ community in 2023, including 22% of Americans under the age of 30. Among LGBTQ+ Americans, 45% identify as bisexual; 34% as gay or lesbian; 21% “something else”; and 2% as transgender or nonbinary.
More than half of LGBTQ+ Americans are religiously unaffiliated, while more than a third identify with a Christian faith. Nearly six in 10 LGBTQ+ Americans consider themselves politically liberal.
