The United States and the Philippines kick off the largest version of their flagship military exercise in more than 30 years Tuesday, a high-profile display of their renewed alliance that comes just a day after China was set to conclude its own drills around Taiwan.
The annual Balikatan exercise will focus on developing maritime security and amphibious operations and will include live-fire training at a time the two nations are seeking to push back against Chinese aggression in the South China Sea. The presence of more than 17,600 military personnel almost doubles last year’s level, according to the U.S. Embassy in Manila.
The size of the drills marks the culmination of U.S. efforts to restore ties with the Philippines under President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., whose predecessor, Rodrigo Duterte, often snubbed Washington in favor of Beijing. As the exercises get underway, Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin will meet their Philippine counterparts in Washington on Tuesday, seeking to strengthen collaboration in the Indo-Pacific region.
The joint exercises come the same week China held multiple drills near Taiwan after the island’s president, Tsai Ing-wen, returned from a visit to the U.S., where she met with House Speaker Kevin McCarthy and other U.S. lawmakers.
In addition, the guided missile destroyer USS Milius conducted “freedom of navigation” operations in the South China Sea on Monday near the Spratly Islands, passing through waters claimed by Beijing.
Despite all that, the long-planned Balikatan exercises with the Philippines aren’t expected to provoke Beijing much, said Carl Schuster, a former operations director at US Pacific Command’s Joint Intelligence Center.
“It has a South China Sea angle and will raise tensions as a result but not to a dangerous or unusual degree,” he said, adding that the exercises are officially directed at improving Manila’s ability to defend its western territories. “Beijing is more focused on intimidating Taiwan and signaling to the U.S. that it will not be easy to assist Taiwan in the event of a conflict.”
Manila has vowed to pursue “collective defense” efforts with Washington around the South China Sea in a bid to counter a record number of Chinese incursions in disputed waters. As part of the rapprochement, the Philippines last week identified four new sites that the U.S. will have access to under an expanded defense agreement, with three of them near Taiwan.
‘Encircle and Contain’
The new locations will bring the number of military sites the U.S. can access in the Philippines to nine, including five existing ones, under the 2014 Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement. The pact allows the U.S. to rotate its troops for prolonged stays as well as build and operate facilities on those bases in the Southeast Asian country.
Yet in a sign of how Marcos has to balance his nation’s ties to both Washington and Beijing — China is the Philippines’ biggest trading partner — he’s said the new sites the U.S. will have access to can’t be used for offensive operations.
China has criticized the plan regardless, with its embassy in Manila describing it as part of America’s attempt to “encircle and contain” the world’s second-biggest economy. Beijing asserts rights to more than 80% of the South China Sea, whose other claimants are the Philippines, Taiwan, Malaysia, Indonesia, Vietnam and Brunei.
But just because those nations have tensions with China over its vast claims doesn’t mean they are lining up behind the U.S.
“Most of the region is in ‘wait, watch and see mode,’” said Schuster. “They want the U.S. to inhibit China’s behavior but do not trust America’s willingness to do so over the long term. So, they are also trying to maintain good relations with both powers.”
