U.S. payroll growth has topped estimates for 10 straight months in the longest streak in decades, a trend that, if extended, will boost pressure on the Federal Reserve to keep raising interest rates.
Beginning in April last year, the median forecast in each survey of economists fell short of the government’s initial estimate of payrolls by an average of 100,000 a month — the most in data compiled by Bloomberg back to 1998. Ahead of the February jobs report on Friday, the projection is for a 224,000 increase, which would be about half the pace seen in January.
Economists may have repeatedly underestimated monthly job growth because they’ve overestimated the impact of the Fed’s most aggressive interest-rate hiking campaign in decades. Companies are far less willing to dismiss workers they have worked so hard to employ after the pandemic.
