The run-up to the 2022 US midterm elections has been marked by the persistent presence of former President Donald Trump. So much so that this election, which typically serves as a litmus test for the sitting president, has transformed into a double referendum on Trump and current President Joe Biden. And the Democrats hope to use this to their advantage.
The 2022 elections in the US are starting to look a little like 2020. On November 8 the US will vote in the midterm elections, a slew of legislative and local elections that usually serve to take stock of the first half of the current president’s term. And yet, in looking at the frontpages of US newspapers, the elections seem to be just as much – if not more – about Trump as they are about Biden.
Historically, former presidents tend to keep a low profile after leaving the Oval Office. Rather than returning to the mud of Washington politics, they usually spend their time frolicking in sunny vacation spots, receiving hefty checks for speaking engagements or planning for their presidential library. Such has not been the case for Donald Trump.
Following his failed re-election bid in 2020 – a defeat he never fully recognised – the billionaire, who was suspended from Twitter and Facebook, continues to mobilise his supporters through press releases and through his own social media network, Truth Social. He consistently steals the spotlight from the contenders for Congress he is meant to be endorsing, all the while frequently hinting at a possible 2024 White House run. This approach has been met with some success. Bestselling writer J.D. Vance won the Republican primary in Ohio in August. The senate candidate has been outspoken in supporting Trump’s conspiracy theory about the 2020 presidential election being “stolen”. Others who have refused to play Trump’s game, such as Wyoming’s Republican representative Liz Cheney, lost their elections.
Trump’s string of scandals
Even when Trump tries to avoid making headlines, bad news follows him. Ever since this summer, his legal headaches have been piling up. The extraordinary FBI search of his Mar-a-Lago home in Florida led to the seizure of several boxes of classified White House documents pertaining to national security. The legal showdown between Trump and the Department of Justice has been raging ever since.
And his legal worries don’t end there. The New York attorney general, Letitia James, announced civil suits on September 21 against Trump and several of his children concerning the fiscal management of the Trump Organization.
Finally, the Congressional commission to investigate the January 6, 2021 attack on the Capitol, whose last hearing was held live on October 13, is a constant reminder of the former president’s involvement in the failed coup. And yet Trump refuses to back down. Summoned to appear before the commission for questioning, Trump responded the following day with a scathing statement, writing: “With all of the hundreds of millions of dollars spent on what many consider to be a Charade and Witch Hunt, and despite strong and powerful requests, you have not spent even a short moment on examining the massive Election Fraud that took place during the 2020 Presidential Election.”
The Democrats couldn’t be more thrilled with these developments. So long as the spotlight is trained on Donald Trump’s scandals and baseless conspiracy theories, they believe that any critical examination of Biden’s first two years in office will remain on the back burner. “We often talk about how the midterms are like a referendum of the sitting president. This is something that would logically be bad for Democrats, because Joe Biden is not a popular president,” said J. Miles Coleman, a political cartographer and co-editor of Sabato's Crystal Ball newsletter, the University of Virginia's election prediction tool. The president’s approval rating is hovering at only 42.5 percent after having plunged to 37 percent this summer. But Trump's extreme visibility could "save" the Democrats, according to Coleman. "The more he inserts himself into this election, the more he reminds undecided voters why they voted for Biden," he said.
No big Republican wave after all?
These midterms promise to be a test of both Biden’s popularity and Trump’s. Doug Schwartz, director of the Quinnipiac University polling institute, said that this twist is an unusual shift for midterm elections. "Usually, the midterm results would reflect the public’s opinion on Joe Biden’s performance as president and on his party as a whole. But this election is turning into a two-pronged referendum, because a lot of voters have Donald Trump on their minds as well." He added: “Six months ago, most political observers expected a big Republican wave of the same ilk as the one we saw two years after Donald Trump or Barack Obama came to power. Today, they estimate that the wave may not be that big, if there is one at all." Lately, analysts believe that the Democrats have a chance of keeping their majority in the Senate.
The "Trump effect” on these midterms could also have an impact on the Republican primaries for 2024, according to Coleman. "Watching the January 6 hearings, the Republicans might be tempted to think, 'We could nominate someone who looks like Trump but doesn't carry his political baggage.'"
Democracy on the ballot
Biden and his team have capitalised on this opportunity. While the Republicans attempt to blame the president for soaring global inflation – which they’ve dubbed ‘Bidenflation’ – Biden has hit back by campaigning on the theme of restoring democracy. “There is no place for political violence,” he said during a speech with great fanfare in Philadelphia, the city where both the Declaration of Independence and the Constitution were signed.
Still, the theme of democracy is a double-edged sword. As a voting issue, it may not be top of mind for many voters this November. “Inflation and abortion are both far more important issues to voters,” Coleman said. But also, he noted, “saving democracy” means something different to different voters. “A polling institute asked voters if threats against democracy were an important issue. Two-thirds answered yes, across all parties. But the wording was quite broad. If you're a Democrat, you might think about the January 6, 2021 attack on the Capitol or Trump and his authoritarian tendencies. If you're a Republican, you’re thinking about electoral fraud."
In any case, the Democrats know that they won’t be able to convince hardcore Trump supporters to switch sides. But in order to have a chance at winning a majority in the Senate, they’re going after independents, moderate voters who bounce from one party to another depending on the election year and – crucially – voters who break out in hives at the very mention of Trump. Even if these latter are deeply dissatisfied with Biden’s policies and with galloping inflation, perhaps a sharp reminder of the January 6 attack could dissuade them from voting Republican at the ballot box this year. Democrats will get their answer November 8.
This article was translated from the original in French.
