2026 US midterm elections: The 2026 midterm elections are still weeks away, yet the first signs of the 2028 presidential race are already appearing. A new poll has former Vice President Kamala Harris leading the Democratic field and Vice President JD Vance ahead among Republicans. Neither has announced a campaign, so the numbers are better read as an early measure of name recognition and interest than a picture of a settled primary.
The McLaughlin & Associates poll was conducted from Sept. 16 through Sept. 22 among 463 likely voters. Fifteen percent said they were undecided. Among Republicans, Vance had 35%, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio at 15% and Donald Trump Jr. at 14%. Twelve percent remained undecided.
Harris has a lead, but the Democratic field is still wide open
Harris' 29% puts her well ahead of Newsom in this particular survey. That does not mean Democrats have decided on their 2028 nominee. There is no formal primary field yet, and several of the names being discussed have not said they will run.
Newsom's own comments show how much could still change. Earlier this month, he told CNN's Jake Tapper that he would not run for president in 2028 if Harris decided to seek the nomination. He made the comment during a conversation in Montana about his political plans. It was not an announcement of a campaign, but it gave a clear indication of how Harris' decision could affect another major Democratic contender.
Vance is ahead while Rubio keeps his distance from 2028 talk
The Republican numbers are more striking at the top. Vance's 35% is more than twice Rubio's 15% in the McLaughlin survey. Trump Jr. is close behind Rubio at 14%, while 12% of Republican respondents have not chosen anyone.
Vance's position comes before any formal 2028 campaign.
For now, the poll only shows where Republican preferences stand in an early hypothetical contest.
Rubio has also tried to cool down speculation about his own plans. During an official visit to Colombia earlier this month, he said he had no plans to run for anything at the moment and said he was focused on his current responsibilities.
Ted Cruz is open about wanting the presidency
Texas Sen. Ted Cruz has been less reserved when asked about his long-term ambitions. In August, he told Texas Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick that it was no secret he wanted to be president. When asked whether he would make another presidential run, Cruz left the timing open.
That puts Cruz in a different position from Rubio, but it still falls short of a campaign announcement. The same basic uncertainty surrounds the leading names in the latest poll. Harris and Vance may be leading early hypothetical fields, but neither has officially entered the 2028 contest.
