I drove north through Wyoming, admiring the magnificent Grand Teton mountains, with their snow-capped peaks rising dramatically 4000 metres from the valley floor. I left the car to read a roadside sign, not realising that the car would lock itself.
"Beware of the bears," it read.
In the Rocky Mountains, Wyoming's primary industries are cattle ranching, natural gas, oil, and tourism. With a population of half a million, it is one of the most sparsely settled and poorest states in the US. Its political values are very conservative - Trump territory. In both the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections, Wyoming delivered the highest percentages of Republican Party votes.
Almost two years after his disgraceful inciting of an insurrection on Capitol Hill, Trump is still a popular and powerful figure in the Republican Party. In the mid-term elections, he has called the shots in the selection of many Republican candidates. Since losing the presidency, Trump has amassed $91 million in his Save America PAC (Political Action Committee that pools campaign contributions). In October, he released $20 million to support Republican allies in five battleground senate election races.
Is Trump laying the groundwork to run again for President in 2024? The results in the mid-terms will drive his decision. The latest polling puts the Republicans ahead. The outcome will have tremendous consequences for the US and the world.
So, what are the mid-terms, and how might they affect American policy? Although the US President is elected every four years, the House of Representatives' term is only two years. Senators have a six-year term, with one-third re-contesting every two years. Currently, the Democrats control both Houses of Congress by a very narrow margin. If the current polling is correct, the Republicans will win control of both houses.
But even if they control only one chamber, the Republicans will be able to block President Joe Biden's legislation. This includes huge stimulus spending and climate change legislation. So once again, government decision-making could become gridlocked on critical policies, like it was during much of the Obama era.
So, why, after fewer than two years of a Democrat administration, are the American people on the verge of making Biden a lame-duck President?
Since visiting Chicago in 2011, we have stayed in touch with our hosts, the Martin family. I recently sought John Martin's views on the likely outcome of the US mid-terms. His response below provides a powerful insight into why Biden's Democrats are unlikely to retain control of the US government agenda.
"This is a critical election that will go a long way to determining America's future direction. The 2022 mid-terms and the Presidential election in 2024 will either make or break this country, which is falling apart. We now have an open border with Mexico, largely controlled by the drug cartels. Crime is destroying our cities, inflation is crippling our wallets, and our foreign policy may land us in a shooting war with Russia or China."
"Basically, Biden is a joke and even his own party is ready to throw him under the bus. His breathtaking incompetence and the speed with which his policies (energy, COVID, immigration, etc) are destroying the country will continue until a change is made. Despite the pandemic, 18 months ago, the USA was in pretty good shape. Now, we are living in 1979 (Carter era) all over again."
Barrett Marson, a veteran republican political strategist, agrees: "this is the best Republican mid-term backdrop for winning in decades, particularly the parlous state of the US economy."
Could such a troubled country be ready to turn back to Trump, even though his extraordinary political power is now in its winter?
Florida is emerging as the epicentre of the early fight for the Republican presidential nomination for 2024. Among the Floridians' White House hopefuls are Governor Ron DeSantis, Senator Marco Rubio, and Trump, who has repeatedly hinted at a 2024 comeback bid.
However, they might all be trumped by incoming Arizona Republican Governor Kari Lake, who has been described as "Trump in high heels". John Martin believes she is the strongest voice against corruption and may win the Presidency.
However, as President Biden looks towards 2024, his best ticket for a second term, despite his age, lousy polls, and underwhelming record, is Trump as the Republican nominee.
Polls show that most Americans don't want a Biden-Trump re-match or the baggage of these two old men dominating the future political landscape. The presidential race still has two years to run, and anything could happen. Surely Americans wouldn't return to Trump as president - or would they?
Newcastle East's Dr John Tierney AM is a former Hunter-based Liberal federal senator
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