Sudan's army chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan has vowed to push on with his fight against the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces, despite a US visa snub to attend the UN General Assembly and mounting pressure for a ceasefire. RFI spoke to a Sudanese researcher about why such a step was taken and how far the stand-off could go.
The US decision, taken last week, was reportedly meant to pressure General Burhan into accepting a three-month truce with the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF).
Khartoum has rejected the proposal, arguing that a ceasefire would only give the RSF time to regroup.
On Sunday, witnesses told French news agency AFP that a drone strike hit a major fuel depot near the army-held city of Wad Madani, while two explosions rocked Nyala, the RSF's main stronghold in the west.
The Wad Madani attack was the first reported strike on the Al-Jazira state capital since the army recaptured it from the RSF last year.
Sudan has been at war since April 2023, when a power struggle between Burhan and his former deputy, RSF commander Mohamed Hamdan Daglo, known as "Hemedti", erupted into open conflict. The fighting has killed tens of thousands of people and displaced millions in what the UN calls the world's largest humanitarian crisis.
RFI talked to Sudanese researcher Suliman Baldo, director of the US-based Sudan Transparency and Policy Observatory, about the US position, why Burhan has rejected the proposed truce and whether the US can still play a role in negotiations.
RFI: Suliman Baldo, why did the Americans refuse General al-Burhan a visa for the UN General Assembly?
The Americans are leading an initiative to propose negotiations to end the fighting in Sudan. They proposed a three-month humanitarian cessation of hostilities to the two sides in Sudan – the Sudanese army and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF).
But Burhan rejected the roadmap proposed by the United States and its regional allies for two reasons. The Sudanese army still believes it can achieve a military victory over the RSF, and General Burhan did not accept the political conditions.
RFI: Is it true that the Americans told General al-Burhan: 'If you agree to sign a 90-day truce, you will get a visa for New York'?
I think things have reached a point where the United States has decided to confront Burhan. First, there were orchestrated leaks about the development of chemical weapons by the Sudanese army, with Burhan's involvement, according to reports published by The New York Times and The Washington Post on the same day, about two weeks ago.
And that was meant to show that Burhan was involved in a war crime by allowing the army, under his command, to develop chemical weapons. So it was orchestrated just before the General Assembly to show that Burhan was, in a way, not qualified to be part of this gathering of international leaders.
RFI: Was this an attempt to delegitimise General Burhan before the UN General Assembly?
Absolutely.
RFI: On the military front, General Burhan's armed forces have been advancing in North Kordofan province for the past two months, particularly around the city of El Obeid. Isn't that the real reason why Burhan does not want to sign a ceasefire?
I believe the Sudanese army is pursuing a plan to use North Kordofan as a base for attacks on the RSF stronghold in the Darfur region.
But the RSF still has thousands of fighters. It has deployed newly trained soldiers equipped with full military gear, including technicals – Toyota vehicles equipped for warfare in the savannah and desert.
So the RSF will push back the Sudanese army's offensive and, I believe, the fighting will continue. It is clear and obvious to everyone that there will never be a military solution to the current war, especially now with the increasing use and deployment of drones by both sides.
RFI: Last week, the Americans went further in their stand-off with General Burhan, declaring him illegitimate. Who will win this war of attrition – Donald Trump or Burhan?
There are a lot of contradictions because Saudi Arabia now needs a great deal of military and intelligence support from the United States in its war with the [Iran-backed] Houthis in Yemen.
So the Saudi leader, Mohammed bin Salman, appealed to President Trump to intervene against the Houthis in Yemen, who have really paralysed the country's oil industry.
And because of this dependence on the United States, Saudi Arabia cannot oppose American policy on Sudan very strongly. So there are a lot of factors that are now complicating the situation, and some of these factors go beyond this issue.
RFI: General al-Burhan's camp says the Americans have switched to General Hemedti's side and can no longer act as mediators. What do you think?
On their own, I don't think the Americans will be able to find a solution to this very complex, multi-dimensional war, because they have completely alienated the Sudanese army.
RFI: But does that mean the Americans should withdraw from the negotiations?
I don't think so, because the Americans also have strategic interests in Sudan.
For them, it is about keeping Russian influence away from the Red Sea. Russia is one of the arms suppliers to the Sudanese army and is still pursuing plans to establish a military base on the Red Sea at Port Sudan.
The Americans do not want to hear about that, nor do the Saudis. That's why the Americans remain engaged in Sudan.
This interview was adapted from the original in French by Christophe Boisbouvier.
