Following US Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh’s speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium, traders have sharply increased their bets on a rate hike, with the probability of a hike now at 57%, up from 30% before his speech in Wyoming, according to official CME FedWatch data.
The shift in expectations extends beyond the September meeting. For the meeting on October 28, traders are pricing in a 70% probability of a rate hike. By the final meeting of the year in December, traders are baking in nearly a 90% chance of a rate hike, according to official data from the US Fed.
