- The Fed fund futures forward curve is indicating no change in the rate this month, with the a possible cut pushed back another month to July.
- Back in January, this same forward curve indicated the May meeting could conclude with a rate cut, highlighting the reality that markets change over time.
- Chairman Powell has already talked about inflation tied to tariffs and trade wars, putting the spotlight on his post-meeting comments.
We've reached Wednesday morning meaning later today, 14:00 (ET) to be exact, US Fed Chairman Powell will announce no change in interest rates. At least not for now. How do I know this? Do I have a crystal ball that allows me to see into the future? I wish. As a friend from southwest Kansas told me Monday, if I knew what was going to happen I'd be on a beach somewhere drinking Mai Tais. I fully agreed with him. Yet here I am, in the basement office, staring at a cinder block wall making predictions. That says it all. But it isn't really a "prediction" to simply repeat what the market is saying. And by market, I mean the Fed fund futures forward curve (always fun to say).
