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A few hours, a few days, more than a month… just how long will it take for us to know who’s won between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump?
Americans head to the polls on Tuesday in one of the most consequential presidential elections for years. At stake (according to Trump) is whether the country survives.
At stake (according to Harris) is whether democracy survives.
The former president says he will only respect a decision that is “fair”, after claiming he was cheated of victory in 2020 by the Democrats under Joe Biden.
Not a single court has backed up that claim. Nonetheless, Trump has succeeded in persuading millions that only electoral fraud can stand in the way of him winning a rare non-consecutive second term in the White House.
After the 2020 election, firebrand supporters such as Rudy Giuliani waged a bizarre campaign to prosecute their case for fraud, culminating in Trump urging his supporters to march on Congress on January 6, 2021.
Despite the deadly violence that day, Biden’s victory stood, and Harris was then sworn in beside him as the vice president.
This time, however, the Republicans appear much better organised to contest results they don’t like - and Democrats are also ready for a fight.
Normally, a result to US presidential elections becomes clear on the night. US networks, using their own surveys of early voting and exit polls, tend to be swift in declaring a result as polling stations close in each state.
The continental United States has four time zones. The polls will close starting at 6pm Eastern Time in parts of Indiana and Kentucky, and ending at 11pm in California and Washington state (then an hour later in Alaska and Hawaii).
By 9pm, all of the battleground states will have finished voting - including Arizona and Nevada in the West. (That’s 2am UK time on November 6.)
Ordinarily, that should mean a result is clear by then. But this is no ordinary election.
For one thing, recounts in closely fought counties will slow things down. Then we have to take into account early voting (when voters can go to special polling stations before Election Day) and mail-in ballots.
Most states don’t allow those ballots to be counted until polls close on November 5. That is meant to protect the integrity of voting in person on the day. But that meant everything got significantly slowed down in 2020 when the number of ballots cast early or by post was much larger than normal (nearly half), because of the Covid pandemic.
Then, it took four days for all of the votes to be counted before Biden was declared the winner, giving time for Trump acolytes to air their wild conspiracy theories.
This time, Republican-led legislatures have moved to restrict voters’ choice, but are also contesting the integrity of absentee ballots, with Trump claiming without evidence that Democrats are intent on cheating with the help of illegal immigrants.
And Trump supporters are stacked on many more election boards than in 2020, leading to a bigger chance of challenges being heard and upheld.
Georgia is an example where his allies have already moved to skew the process their way, leading to a judge’s intervention ruling out some of their more egregious decisions in Trump’s favour.
Further judicial hearings look certain after November 5, with both the Republicans and Democrats preparing a rearguard of lawyers to take to the post-election field of battle.
It threatens a reprise of 2000, when in the notorious Bush v Gore case, the Supreme Court finally stepped in to decide the election in the Republicans’ favour 35 days after Election Day, by stopping a recount in Florida.
November 5 is not the only key date to look out for. Members of the Electoral College are scheduled to convene in each state on December 17 to certify the result. That is usually a formality. But if Trump loses, expect further trouble then.
Then comes the key flashpoint from last time: the declaration of the result in Congress on January 6, 2025.
In 2020, mere talk of electoral chicanery was enough to rile up Trump’s base. Now, he swears God is willing him to win, after he twice survived assassination attempts. His supporters mutter darkly about the fate awaiting heretics who don’t believe in their prophet.
The stage is set therefore for an even more tumultuous post-election period, with Trump also threatening to turn the armed forces on Democrats who object in the event of him winning.
Much of that will turn out to be empty bluster. But it might all take a while to play out before the next president is inaugurated on January 20, 2025.
