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The phones of London's high-end estate agents have been ringing overnight. Enquiries from anti-Trump Americans to rent trophy homes on London's most prestigious streets started to come in during the early hours of Wednesday morning as a Donald Trump victory seemed inevitable.
"My team have been up most of the night fielding enquiries from many of the US cities that we work with, including New York and Los Angeles," says Becky Fatemi of Sotheby's International Realty. "The most immediate requests are for rentals. They want wide-fronted townhouses in Notting Hill or large lateral apartments in buildings with a porter, such as the Peninsula. We expect to see this demand continue," she adds.
James Gow, head of London residential sales for Strutt & Parker, believes this activity will bleed over into the sales sector too in what is known as Prime Central London (PCL), and boost this micro-market – which is small in footprint but large in value for the UK economy.
"Trump is such a polarising figure that there will be some wealthy Americans who will just think, 'I do not agree with his rhetoric and I just cannot be a part of it,'" Gow says.
Sentiment is the main driver in the PCL market as these buyers are so wealthy they are rarely forced to move, Gow continues. Due to constraints on new developments and many buildings used for other purposes – such as embassies – there is historically a lack of supply of homes in the most prestigious pockets of Westminster and Kensington and Chelsea. "Therefore, an influx of Americans buying up homes with create a swing in sentiment and momentum and could move prices up too. A Trump win could be good for the London market" he says.
London homes at the top end
How prices have changed in 12 months
Above £10m: 1.6 per cent drop
£5m-£10m: 1.1 per cent drop
£3m-£5m: 0.4 per cent drop
£2m-£3m: 0.9 per cent drop
Below £2m: 1.6 per cent drop
Source: Savills
US buyers have been here all year
North American buyers have been preparing their property portfolios and location in the lead up to the US election this November. Even when other international buyers dropped off over the course of 2024 due to uncertainty around the UK change in government and taxation levels, US buyers have still been property shopping in London.
US buyers were the top non-UK visitors to the Savills website this August and over the last year have accounted for 14 per cent of deals.
Buying agent Liam Monaghan of LCP Private Office has seen an "uptick" in American buyers in 2024 with nearly a third of buyers coming from North America. "The US election is a polarising event and therefore has driven some US clients to think about their worldwide holdings carefully. It is sensible to have a foothold in both camps as they monitor the political landscape and financial markets," he says.
They are shopping for period properties with charm and traditional features but are modernised inside with state-of-the-art fixtures – or as Fatemi calls it "turnkey" aka ready to move straight into.
"We recently fully refurnished a top floor flat in Notting Hill for an American buyer who loved the character of the building but wanted a complete internal renovation to modernise throughout. They also favour new build schemes with all amenities onsite – of late US buyers have bought in the Old War Offices in Westminster and Regents Crescent with views over Regents Park," Monaghan adds.
A new, mobile generation
Historically, wealth generated in American stayed in America, explains Savills' Rory McMullen. Now there is a new more mobile generation of wealth. Younger individuals and families who have made money through tech, crypto, venture capital and private equity. With more remote working and a change in attitude after covid this generation is more mobile. "London has seen this migration of young US wealth over the last few years," he explains. "It is a trend that is set to continue.”
"They often rent first buy later, known as 'try before you buy'. Rental stock in the centre of London is so constrained that any influx is set to increase rents once again. "I have seen a significant increase in enquiries for both short- and long-term rents in the run up to the US election, particularly from families in New York. We saw an influx in 2016 when Trump won – we are expecting to this this again," says Olivia McSweeney of Sotheby's International Realty.
Rents
Prime central London rents are up 33.9 per cent on 2017-2019 (pre pandemic)
Rents have increased by 2.2 per cent over the last 12 months
Source: LonRes (October)
London as a safe haven has not changed
Some will see the Trump win as unsettling back home and it will motivate them to move. But there are many other factors pushing US buyers into London and the UK's country house market, according to buying agent Camilla Dell of Black Brick.
She cites the strong dollar against the pound, falling prices in PCL, the British high quality education system and the perception of safety as factors which continue to appeal to US high networth individual.
"We worry about crime here but it is not comparable to gun crime in the US. We are sending children into school through the school gate and not through metal detectors. After covid there is also a huge homelessness crisis in cities such as New York and drug taking on the streets is rife," she says.
For Gow, the safe haven status of London remains its major selling point at a time when the Trump win will breed further unrest in the US. And, while conflict is raging in the Middle East and Ukraine there is renewed certainty in the UK.
"2024 has been like driving down the motorway in the fog, you drive slowly peering through the windscreen. But the UK and the US election are down now – we have certainty and visibility which should translate into a busy market in the New Year," he concludes.
