After the first five months of the year, we can see that not all brands are enjoying the growth of all-electric car sales in the United States.
While the overall number of new BEV registrations market improved by 68 percent year-over-year to 447,514 units, some of the brands - including stars of 2022 - are down.
A new Automotive News report, based on data from Experian, points out which manufacturers are struggling so far this year.
The article mentions Ford, Kia, and Lucid, as well as Cadillac and Porsche, suggesting that they are "cooling" this year.
In the case of Ford, during the first five months of the year, its flagship Ford Mustang Mach-E model noted a 29 percent decrease year-over-year to 10,948 new registrations. In the 12 months of 2022, the model was up by 50 percent year-over-year, reaching 38,469 units. Something has changed, despite the price reductions. Let's recall that in 2023, the Mach-E must compete with a much more affordable Tesla Model Y, and the Mach-E's federal tax credit was cut in half to $3,750. Ford is ramping up production of the Mach-E, which will reveal whether there is any issue on the demand side or if it was only a temporary slowdown.
We will closely look at the Ford F-150 Lightning too, which recently got a very significant price cut. Thanks to the electric F-150, as of the end of May, Ford BEV registrations increased by 30 percent to 22,425, but the brand is now third overall, behind Chevrolet and lost some share in the BEV segment (5.0 percent compared to 6.5 percent a year ago).
Kia, after more than tripling its BEV sales in 2022, during the first five months of 2023, noted a drop of Kia EV6 registrations by 29 percent to 6,780. The Kia Niro EV model also is down at 4,425 units (27 percent less than a year ago). Overall, Kia's share in the BEV segment decreased from 5.8 percent to 2.5 percent.
Hyundai improved its result by 33 percent year-over-year to 16,175 (January-May), but it's far from the growth rate in the 12 months of 2022 (up 142 percent), despite the fact that the all-new Hyundai Ioniq 6 reinforced the lineup and that the Hyundai Kona Electric almost tripled its sales to 3,943. In the case of Kia and Hyundai, the lack of eligibility for the $7,500 federal tax credit for imported models is a negative factor (the incentive is potentially available through leasing).
Nissan is another example - Leaf registrations are down 48 percent, so the addition of the all-new Ariya model only compensated for the lost volume. The overall result is flat.
Automotive News mentions Lucid too. The brand more than tripled its registrations during the first five months of 2023, to 2,758, but there are some worrying signs - missing sales forecast and Q2 sales flat compared to the Q1.
Disappointing are BEV numbers from Cadillac too (1,893 units, compared to 40 a year ago) and GMC (63 compared to 222 a year ago).
Porsche (2,679 registrations and down 26 percent year-over-year) is also struggling. Interestingly, BMW (14,787) and Mercedes-Benz (14,472) are booming. Rivian, with 11,910 units and a nearly sixfold increase, is also moving in the right direction.
BEV registrations (select brands) - January-May 2023:
- Tesla: 270,698 (up 51%) and 60.5% share (down from 67.4%)
- Chevrolet - 29,282 and 6.5% share
- Ford - 22,425 (up 30%) and 5.0% share
- Hyundai - 16,175 and 3.6% share
- BMW - 14,787 ("nearly 15-fold increase")
- Mercedes-Benz - 14,472 (up 348%)
- Volkswagen - 14,094 (up 256%)
- Rivian - 11,910 (up nearly six times)
- Kia - 11,205 and 2.5% share
- Audi - 8,285 (up 25%)
- Nissan - 7,261
- Lucid - 2,758 (up 234%)
- Porsche - 2,679 (down 26%)
- Cadillac - 1,893 (up 4,633%)
- VinFast - 128 (new)
- GMC - 63 (down 72%)
BEV registrations in the US (select models) - January-May 2023:
- Tesla Model Y - 167,900 (up 103%) and 37.5% share
- Tesla Model 3 - 87,200 (up 18%)
- Volkswagen ID.4 - 14,094 (up 256%)
- Ford Mustang Mach-E - 10,948 (down 29%)
- Hyundai Ioniq 5 - 10,406 (down 3.4%)
- Tesla Model X - 10,263 (up 7%)
- Ford F-150 Lightning - 8,800 (up 2,338% from 361)
- Kia EV6 - 6,780 (down 29%)
- Rivian R1T - 6,013
- Rivian R1S - 5,897
- Tesla Model S - 5,335 (down 59%)
- Kia Niro EV - 4,425 (down 27%)
- Hyundai Kona Electric - 3,943 (up 190%)
- Nissan Leaf - 3,760 (down 48%)
- Nissan Ariya - 3,501 (new)
- Toyota bZ4X - 2,985 (up 1,558%)
- Lucid Air - 2,758 (up 234%)
- Porsche Taycan - 2,679 (down 26%)
- Subaru Solterra - 2,442 (new)
- Hyundai Ioniq 6 - 1,824 (new)
- VinFast VF 8 - 128
- GMC Hummer EV Pickup - 63 (down 72%)
Well, the available data reveals to us that a generally positive year for BEV sales in the US might be very challenging for some particular models or brands.
Changes in the federal tax credit, fierce price competition, and the upcoming transition from CCS1 to NACS charging standard are just a few issues related to the BEV segment, on top of all of the general things related to the economy. It definitely is not an easy time.
Our guess is that in the second part of the year, we might see some big improvements from General Motors and Ford, as the two local manufacturers heavily invested in electrification, and in the next couple of quarters we should see some of the fruits of that.
