President Joe Biden said Thursday that there was a “very high” probability that Russia would invade Ukraine, possibly “in the next couple days,” while a top Western security official warned that Moscow has enough troops on its border to attack “with very little or no warning.”
“That is what makes the situation so dangerous,” NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said during a press conference in Brussels at which he also raised alarms about the Kremlin utilizing disinformation to create a pretext for war with the country, a former Soviet republic.
Even though western officials said they were holding out hope for diplomacy, their increasingly dire rhetoric and actions taken by the Kremlin underscored a sense that a conflict was inevitable and imminent. Russia expelled a high-ranking American diplomat from Moscow on Thursday as Secretary of State Antony Blinken scheduled an emergency trip to address the United Nations Security Council in New York on his way to a planned security conference in Munich.
U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd J. Austin III, addressing reporters from the same NATO meetings where Stoltenberg spoke in Brussels, said that Russia was sharpening its preparations in the Black Sea and “even stocking up their blood supply.” His warnings, as well as those from Biden and Stoltenberg, reiterated similarly stark assessments they have issued in recent days.
“I know firsthand that you don’t do these sorts of things, for no reason,” Austin said. “And you certainly don’t do them if you’re getting ready to pack up and go home.”
Austin and Stoltenberg also disputed Russian claims that Moscow is drawing down troops amassed at the border.
U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Linda Thomas-Greenfield put her warning in stark terms “to convey the gravity of the situation,” asserting evidence on the ground points to an “imminent invasion.”
“This is a crucial moment,” she said.
The dire admonitions come as the U.S. and its Western allies fend off what they believe is a Kremlin disinformation campaign aimed at laying the groundwork to argue that Ukraine provoked a Russian attack. U.S. and NATO officials expressed skepticism of new claims by Russia that Ukraine is to blame for reported shelling and gunfire exchanged Thursday with Russian-backed separatists in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region.
Austin said the U.S. is investigating the incidents, adding that they fit into the Russian disinformation playbook that allies have been warning about. The Defense secretary and Stoltenberg faced questions about the reliability of their own evidence, given prior intelligence failures and vocal warnings by U.S. and NATO officials in recent days that a Russian attack was imminent.
“I don’t see this as a competition of narratives,” Austin said, pointing to Russia’s record. He said he expects Moscow to launch more cyberattacks and false-flag narratives blaming Ukraine.
“We’re beginning to see more and more of that,” he said.
Austin and Stoltenberg urged Russia to seek a diplomatic solution to the crisis. But they conceded that the tension between Russia and Europe could linger, leaving Western allies on the razor’s edge in what Stoltenberg called “a new normal” reminiscent of the Cold War.
“We have seen this trend over many years, where Russia contests fundamental principles for European security,” he said, warning that Moscow would continue to “intimidate countries in Europe” to disrupt defense alliances.
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