In the ongoing efforts to secure the release of hostages held by Hamas and to find a path towards ending the conflict between Israel and Hamas, CIA Director Bill He met with his Israeli counterpart in Paris. The meeting was described as constructive, but significant gaps still remain. The United States is actively working on multiple fronts to make progress in these areas.
Ryan Crocker, a former ambassador with extensive experience in critical Middle Eastern countries, believes that the release of hostages is crucial for any advancement towards a broader settlement or a sustained pause in the fighting. He commends the administration for putting all its efforts into brokering a hostage-for-prisoner swap, acknowledging that it will be a challenging task.
In addition to resolving the immediate hostage situation, there are discussions about the possibility of Israel-Saudi normalization in exchange for the establishment of a Palestinian state. Crocker suggests that Israeli and Saudi normalization may be somewhat easier to achieve than a comprehensive Palestinian solution. Although Saudi Arabia has expressed its support for a two-state solution, they may not go as far as fully endorsing it. However, even an end to the fighting and some political progress could be sufficient for the Saudis to move forward.
Crocker emphasizes the significance of Saudi Arabia joining other Arab nations, including Egypt, Jordan, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Morocco, in establishing peaceful relations with Israel. This alignment would have a transformative impact on the Middle East, given Saudi Arabia's substantial financial capabilities.
The recent drone attack in Jordan resulting in the deaths of three US service members has raised concerns about the effectiveness of deterrence efforts. President Biden has stated that the US will respond, but clarifies that they do not seek a war or wider conflict in the Middle East. The administration aims to de-escalate tensions while taking necessary action in response to Iranian-backed militias.
Crocker supports the measured approach taken by the administration, recognizing that there are no easy choices in the region. He notes that the conflict is primarily with Iran and not the Arab world. Despite this, there has been limited Arab involvement in the fighting, and Arab states with relations with Israel have not taken steps to sever those ties. While targeting Iran inside its borders has been proposed, Crocker urges caution and suggests exhausting alternative options before taking such a significant step.
As efforts continue to secure the release of hostages and forge a path towards peace, the complexities and challenges of the Middle East persist. The United States remains committed to working on multiple fronts and exploring potential avenues to achieve progress.
