HUDSON, N.Y. — In the rolling hills of upstate New York, two swing districts — stretching across the dairy farms and post-industrial towns of the Hudson Valley and Southern Tier — offer a window into the battle for control of the House.
The high-stakes reelection campaigns of two freshman congressmen, one a Republican and the other a Democrat, show how moderates in both parties are messaging on hot-button issues from abortion to immigration.
In New York’s 19th District, Republican Rep. Marc Molinaro, once the nation’s youngest mayor, faces a well-financed challenge from attorney and former congressional staffer Josh Riley. The race has turned into one of the nation’s most bitter House contests. It’s also a rematch of the 2022 midterm race in which Molinaro flipped the then-open seat by a margin of fewer than 5,000 votes.
To the south, Democratic Rep. Pat Ryan, an Iraq War veteran and former county executive who first came to Congress in a 2022 special election and has represented the 18th District since last year, is seeking to fend off a challenge from former NYPD commanding officer Alison Esposito. Esposito was propelled into New York state politics after running on a gubernatorial ticket alongside then-Rep. Lee Zeldin, who held a Long Island-area seat. Their ticket came within 6.5 points of winning in 2022, the best showing statewide for Republicans in two decades.
State elections observers say the outcome of each race could play an outsized role in determining control of Congress.
“The idea that the road back to a House majority for the Democrats goes through New York has an awful lot of credibility when you look at the numbers,” said Vassar political science professor Richard Born.
Democrats lost five competitive House races in New York during the 2022 midterms, helping hand Republicans their current razor-thin, 220-212 majority.
To win back the chamber, Democrats must pick up at least four more seats than the GOP, according to Inside Elections’ Nathan L. Gonzales. He considers both New York’s 18th and 19th districts to be in play, rating Molinaro’s race as “Tilt Republican” and Ryan’s as “Likely Democratic.”
Swapping out the top of the ticket from President Joe Biden to Vice President Kamala Harris may have boosted Democrats’ New York prospects, said Born. “I expect there will probably be a limited coattail effect from Harris, as opposed to the damage that Biden would have done to these Democratic candidates had he been still on the ticket.”
Meanwhile, Republicans are working overtime to continue making inroads in the Empire State.
Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., who held fundraisers for Molinaro and Esposito earlier this year, plans to return to the state this month. Electing Republicans in both upstate districts “is critical” to expanding the GOP’s House majority, he said in an emailed statement.
While polling has been scant, it indicates each race could be a nail-biter. An Emerson College poll released last week found Ryan led Esposito 48 to 43 percent. In the 19th District, a September survey conducted by RMG Research had Riley with a narrow lead, 42 to 39 percent, well within the poll’s margin of error.
Candidates spar on immigration, economy
The GOP candidates are betting concerns over immigration and public safety will give them a boost. Molinaro likes to tell voters, “every community in this country is a border community now.”
He points the finger at Riley, frequently referencing his opponent’s time in private law practice, when the Democrat filed briefs in the Supreme Court challenging the Trump administration’s travel ban on Muslim-majority countries. Riley also worked as a Senate staffer on a stalled 2013 immigration bill that would have provided a pathway to citizenship for many undocumented immigrants while doubling the number of border patrol agents.
The Biden administration’s “dismantling of border security” is “based on Riley’s legal arguments,” Molinaro said in an interview between campaign stops last month.
But Riley has taken pains to distance himself from his party’s immigration policies. “I’ve opposed the president, and I’ll fight for real solutions, more agents, stronger enforcement and laws that are tough and fair,” Riley says in a new TV ad.
Meanwhile, Molinaro is under fire for posting a screenshot on social media that amplified false claims of Haitian migrants kidnapping and eating neighborhood pets in Springfield, Ohio.
On economic issues, Riley is going on offense, painting his opponent as beholden to corporate interests.
He’s taken Molinaro to task for accepting campaign donations from outside industry groups, including thousands of dollars from Avangrid PAC, which is aligned with the 19th District’s embattled utility provider. In a recent interview with the Cornell University student newspaper, Riley pointed to such donations as evidence Molinaro is not serious about “cracking down” on corporate price gouging. (Both candidates have received PAC contributions, but the bulk have gone to Molinaro.)
Molinaro dismissed those attacks and highlighted recent attempts to cut costs for consumers, including partnering across the aisle with Ryan to sponsor legislation that would require the federal government to study rising grocery prices.
Over in the 18th District, Esposito has focused much of her messaging on a promise to boost public safety and advocate for law enforcement. She’s leaning heavily on her two-decade career in the NYPD to lend her credibility.
Her campaign is running a 30-second ad foregrounding her service and replaying statements of progressive House Democrats who called to “defund the police,” a slogan Ryan has not endorsed.
Esposito has also attacked Ryan’s legislative record, criticizing his vote against HR 2, the stand-alone Republican border security bill that passed the chamber on a party-line vote.
Yet Ryan has staked out a more aggressive stance on immigration than many in his party. At times, it has meant locking arms with New York Republicans.
In 2023, Ryan joined Molinaro and Rep. Mike Lawler, who also faces a tough reelection in the Hudson Valley, to call on the Biden administration to declare a state of emergency over what he called an “untenable” influx of asylum-seekers to the state. In May, Ryan was among 15 Democrats to request Biden take executive action on the border.
“She spends her time politicizing the border,” Ryan said of Esposito. “I’m doing the actual work to fix it.”
Ryan’s biggest break with his party came this summer, when he became the eighth House Democrat to publicly call on Biden to exit the 2024 presidential race.
Abortion still a top concern
Reproductive rights have also emerged as a flashpoint in the upstate campaigns.
The issue will be on the November ballot, where voters will decide the fate of a proposition to add an equal rights amendment to the state’s constitution that includes language protecting reproductive health care and autonomy.
Like many House Democrats, Ryan is attempting to put abortion access front and center in his race. To do that, his campaign is folding the issue into a broader message that Democrats serve as a bulwark against GOP attacks on personal and bodily freedoms.
“Freedom is on the ballot this fall. Economic freedom. Freedom from gun violence. Freedom to breathe clean air. Reproductive freedom,” Ryan said in an email. “You want to piss off the American people? Take their freedom away.”
His campaign released an attack ad suggesting his opponent supports an abortion ban in New York. The 15-second spot has been airing on TV, digital platforms and streaming services since July.
In response, Esposito accused Ryan of intentionally “misrepresenting” her abortion stance. But she’s tackling the issue with caution. Esposito has argued that abortion access should be left up to the states, while stressing that she does not support a national abortion ban.
“I’m not campaigning on it, I can’t touch New York law, and I don’t think it’s a federal issue, so I can’t touch abortion one way or another,” Esposito said in a phone interview.
When pressed, Esposito declined to say how she would vote if a bill to codify the tenets of Roe v. Wade were to come to the House floor. “What I believe about abortion is it should be safe, it should be rare, and it should not be used as birth control,” she added.
Meanwhile, in the 19th District, Molinaro is tackling abortion access head-on with a 30-second TV ad focused solely on the matter.
“I believe health decisions should be made between a woman and her doctor, not Washington,” Molinaro says directly to camera. The spot, which first aired in August, highlights his role as the first Republican to co-sponsor legislation that would protect federal access to in vitro fertilization. Molinaro also said he opposes a national abortion ban.
That has not stopped a slew of withering ads from Riley. One suggests the Republican cannot be trusted to vote against an abortion ban, while another targets Molinaro’s record, including his support for an amendment to the National Defense Authorization Act that would prohibit the Pentagon from reimbursing servicemembers for travel costs to receive abortion services.
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