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USA Today Sports Media Group
USA Today Sports Media Group
Sport
Phil Harrison

Updated ESPN FPI predictions has Ohio State losing a game for the first time this season

The Ohio State football team made a huge statement on Saturday afternoon, knocking back a top ten Penn State team with a suffocating defense and an offense that made enough plays at key moments to win the biggest challenge of the year so far.

Each week we like to check in on how the ESPN FPI (Football Power Index) changes the percentage chances of the Ohio State football team winning the each remaining regular season game of the 2023 season, and it’s that time of the week again.

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So far, believe it or not, ESPN’s crazy model that predicts future performance of a team based on current metrics in combination with its opponents, has been very kind to the Buckeyes. It has predicted them to win each game on the schedule. We don’t ask how the sausage was made, we just consume it and enjoy how it feels on our taste buds.

There’s still a couple of huge tests ahead with next week in Madison being no picnic, and then of course, the year-end donnybrook with Michigan that’s looking more and more like a massive game.

Here is what the ESPN FPI matchup predictor says about each remaining game on the schedule and OSU’s chances of winning, including games against RutgersWisconsinMichigan State and, of those Wolverines. We also take a look at how things might have changed since last week when we went through the same exercise.

Oct. 28 at Wisconsin

Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

Camp Randall Stadium (Madison, Wisconsin)

Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 88.2% (down from 88.3% from last week)
All-Time Series: OSU leads 62-18-5

Projected running record: 8-0

Nov. 4 at Rutgers

Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports

SHI Stadium (Piscataway, New Jersey)

Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 91.9% (down from 92.2% from last week)
All-Time Series: OSU leads 9-0

Projected running record: 9-0

Nov. 11 vs. Michigan State

USA TODAY SMG

Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)

Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 97.9% (up from 96.9% last week)
All-Time Series: OSU leads 36-15

Projected running record: 10-0

Nov. 18 vs. Minnesota

Matt Krohn-USA TODAY Sports

Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)

Predicted Winner: Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability: 96.9% (down from 97.2% last week)
All-Time Series: OSU leads 46-7

Projected running record: 11-0

Nov. 25 at Michigan

(Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images)

Michigan Stadium (Ann Arbor, Michigan)

Predicted Winner: Michigan
Buckeyes Win Probability: 47.3% (down from 52.7% last week)
All-Time Series: OSU trails 51-60-6

Projected running record: 11-1

NEXT … The summary of the ESPN Matchup Predictor Ohio State trends

Trending Summary

USA TODAY SMG

How each remaining Ohio State game is trending according to the ESPN FPI Matchup Predictor

Opponent Chances of Winning Chances Last Week Trend
at Wisconsin 88.2% 88.3%
at Rutgers 91.9% 92.2%
vs. Michigan State 97.9% 96.9%
vs. Minnesota 96.9% 97.2%
at Michigan 47.3% 53.2%

Contact/Follow us @BuckeyesWire on X (formerly Twitter), and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Ohio State news, notes, and opinion. Follow Phil Harrison on X.

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