The Ohio State football team moved to 5-0 after a 49-10 blowout win against Rutgers. Now, it’s on to its first road contest, against Michigan State, next Saturday. The Buckeyes may have looked like a rusty, first-game unit against Notre Dame during Week 1, but since then, OSU has looked more like the team we all thought it would.
But what about the national narrative, or rather, what does ESPN’s Football Percentage Index say about the Buckeyes? Each week, the matchup predictor ESPN updates Ohio State’s chances of winning each game based on the results across the country, and each week we see the needle move a little for each game.
So, what does the model say about the Buckeyes’ chances of winning the rest of its regular season games after another dominant performance, this time against the Scarlet Knights?
Well, we’re glad you asked, or at least we’re glad you are here, and we made you think about it by reading this.
Here’s where that rating system stands after five weeks of the season.
Saturday, Oct. 8, at Michigan State
Spartan Stadium (East Lansing, Michigan)
Predicted Winner | Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability | 87.9% (up from 87.7% last week)
All-Time Series | OSU leads 35-15
Projected running record: 6-0
Saturday, Oct. 22, vs. Iowa
Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)
Predicted Winner | Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability | 94.8% (no change from last week)
All-Time Series | OSU leads 46-15-3
Projected running record: 7-0
Saturday, Oct. 29, at Penn State
Beaver Stadium (State College, Pennsylvania)
Predicted Winner | Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability | 73.9% (no change from last week)
All-Time Series | OSU leads 22-14
Projected running record: 8-0
Saturday, Nov. 5, at Northwestern
Ryan Field (Evanston, Illinois)
Predicted Winner | Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability | 98.4% (no change from last week)
All-Time Series | OSU leads 64-14-1
Projected running record: 9-0
Saturday, Nov. 12, vs. Indiana
Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)
Predicted Winner | Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability | 97.9% (no change from last week)
All-Time Series | OSU leads 77-12-5
Projected running record: 10-0
Saturday, Nov. 19, at Maryland
Maryland Stadium (College Park, Maryland)
Predicted Winner | Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability | 84.5% (down from 84.6% last week)
All-Time Series | OSU leads 7-0
Projected running record: 11-0
Saturday, Nov. 26, vs. Michigan
Ohio Stadium (Columbus, Ohio)
Predicted Winner | Ohio State
Buckeyes Win Probability | 78.8% (no change from last week)
All-Time Series | OSU trails 51-59-6
Projected Final Regular Season record: 12-0
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