Space exploration sometimes has consequences that are not immediately apparent. According to NASA scientists, a rocket fragment could collide with the Moon in early August.
In January 2025, around a year and a half ago, Elon Musk's company SpaceX used its Falcon 9 rocket to send two landers to the Moon. Now, US astronomer Bill Gray and the US space agency NASA, cited by the dpa news agency, warn that an upper stage of the rocket could unintentionally hit the Moon. Calculations suggest that the impact will occur on 5 August.
The space website Space.com reports that a panel discussion with experts was held in early July about the impending impact. It was organised by NASA's Solar System Exploration Research Virtual Institute (SSERVI). The Moon is a dynamic environment, lunar observer Brian Day told the site. Changes and impacts occur regularly.
Will the collision with the Moon be visible from Earth?
Experts are currently debating whether the collision will be visible from Earth. From Earth's perspective, the rocket part could hit right at the edge of the lunar disc. The resulting dust plume could be illuminated by the Sun and therefore become visible, the site adds.
The upper stage of the Falcon 9 rocket weighs around four tonnes. According to the portal Space.com, the piece of space debris is currently travelling at more than two kilometres per second.
NASA considers the chances of observing the impact from Earth to be low. "I think it will be very, very difficult to see, if not impossible," said William Cooke, a manager at the US space agency NASA, according to the dpa news agency.
The calculations for the potential collision with the Moon were already published in September. They were carried out by astronomer Bill Gray of Project Pluto. He developed the Guide astronomy software, which allows amateur and professional astronomers to track near-Earth objects in space. His software predicted impact on the Moon on 5 August 2026. Earlier calculations had even suggested a possible collision in March, as National Geographic also reported. He says the impact does not pose any danger.
Unplanned impacts caused by space debris
However, as the amount of space debris continues to grow, such incidents could become more frequent.
There was a similar incident four years ago. Images from the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter probe showed space debris hitting the Moon. NASA scientists suspected that a fragment of an old Chinese rocket was behind the collision, but China rejected these reports. There are also repeated impacts on the Moon for research purposes, but in those cases they are planned.
The predicted collision on 5 August 2026 was not intentional. Elon Musk's company has so far not commented on the matter in response to a request from dpa.
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