Unless we act, escalating commodity prices will cause a decade of global turmoil

Riot police fight protesters in Kazakhstan, where rising energy prices have prompted mass protests. Photograph: Vladimir Tretyakov/AP

The war in Ukraine has gone global. Spiking commodity prices are on track to see their sharpest rises since 1970, sending a shock wave of suffering across the world as the prices of essential goods every human needs to survive are surging upwards. Wheat prices are up 60% since February. Food prices are now higher than during the global food crisis of 2008, which pushed 155 million people into extreme poverty. Cheap Ukrainian wheat that vulnerable nations including Egypt, Libya, Somalia, Syria, and Lebanon rely on lies stranded. If we aren’t careful, the “Ukraine shock” could fast be approaching the awesome scale of the OPEC and Iran shocks that rocked the 1970s.

But the “shock” metaphor is deceptive. This is not a momentary blast; all the warning signs point to the fact that this could turn into an avalanche. If that happens, we are just at the beginning of a decade-long deluge.