Alberta’s United Conservatives have scraped a majority government, narrowly defeating the rival New Democrats in what proved to be the province’s closest ever election.
The triumph for incumbent premier Danielle Smith foreshadows more friction between the western province and Canada’s federal government on environmental regulation, with Smith using her victory speech to attack the climate policies of the prime minister, Justin Trudeau.
The United Conservative party won 49 of the province’s 87 electoral districts in Monday’s vote, a figure that includes one candidate whom Smith has barred from joining the party’s caucus because of offensive remarks she made, comparing transgender students to feces.
The New Democratic party, under leader Rachel Notley, won the remaining 38 seats. Even though the NDP picked up more than a dozen seats, it fell short by razor-thin margins in the key battlegrounds.
Pollsters had predicted a tight race, but economist Blake Shaffer found voting results showed Notley’s NDP needed only 2,611 votes across six electoral districts to form a government. More than 1 million registered voters did not vote in the election, Shaffer said.
Taking the stage late on Monday, Smith told supporters she would fight Trudeau’s climate policies, arguing they would be harmful to the province’s largest industry and warning tens of thousands of jobs were at stake.
Trudeau’s government has pledged to cut carbon emissions by as much as 45% by 2030, a goal it is not yet on track to meet. To meet this goal, experts agree the oil industry would need to make steep cuts to its emissions.
“This is not a road we can afford to go down. If [Trudeau] persists, he will be hurting Canadians from coast to coast and he will strain the patience and goodwill of Albertans in an unprecedented fashion,” Smith said. “Hopefully the prime minister and his caucus are watching tonight … As premier, I cannot under any circumstances allow these contemplated federal policies to be inflicted upon Albertans. I simply can’t and I won’t.”
Smith has previously used the federal government as a useful political foe in the oil-rich province, where many residents are wary of aggressive climate goals. She and Trudeau have feuded over who is responsible for carbon capture and storage projects, as well as what a “just transition” from fossil fuels to renewable energy might look like.
Earlier this year, Smith’s government passed a controversial “sovereignty act” which allows the province to refuse to enforce federal laws it believes to be unconstitutional. Smith has previously warned it could be used on federal legislation that Alberta views as a potential threat to the province’s oil and gas industry.
“Let’s keep working together to deliver results for Albertans – let’s create more good jobs, grow our economy, and continue to position Alberta as a leader in clean energy,” Trudeau tweeted on Monday night, congratulating Smith for her win.
The Conservative leader, Pierre Poilievre, who endorsed Smith in the final days of the campaign, called it a “resounding win” and said Smith would help the province “unleash the full potential of Alberta’s economy”.
With such a narrow victory, Smith is likely to face internal challenges within her party. Her margin of victory was slim for a province where conservative premiers typically dominate general elections. Smith must also contend with a history of party mutiny: no conservative premier has been able to serve a full term in office since 2004. Instead, they fall victim to fierce infighting between factions of libertarians, populists and fiscal conservatives.
Notley, who served as premier from 2015 until 2019, fell short in her goal of recapturing the province’s leadership. Despite the loss, she vowed to lead her party into the next election.
“It is my honour to serve as your leader,” she said in her concession speech. “And it is my privilege to continue to serve as leader of the official opposition.”
Notley, whose tenure as centrist leader has become enmeshed in the party’s identity, will oversee the largest official opposition in Alberta’s history, a feat of political manoeuvring that has seen her grow the NDP from an also-ran party into a contender to threaten the conservative lock on the province.
