THE Union is “not out of the woods yet” and supporters of independence will have opportunities to build backing for Yes over the next decade, according to an analysis.
Ben Jackson, professor of modern history at Oxford University, said while the SNP are facing their toughest time for more than a decade, the story put forward by the London-based media that the SNP are on the back foot is not the full picture.
Writing an introduction to a special issue of journal The Political Quarterly on “Scottish Politics after Sturgeon”, he said Labour still faced a challenge to reinstate themselves as the “dominant Scottish party at Westminster, let alone at Holyrood.”
He said the SNP have a “good chance” of remaining the largest party at Holyrood and a “reasonable chance” of being the largest Scottish party at Westminster.
Jackson, who is also co-editor of The Political Quarterly, wrote: “According to the London-based media, the story seems clear enough: the SNP are on the back foot for the first time since their impressive victory at the 2011 Scottish Parliament election, with scandal, policy mistakes, internal divisions and an unpopular new leader opening the way for a Scottish Labour revival.
“This is certainly one plausible interpretation of events.”
He said the result of the major Labour win in the Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election showed Labour have “serious electoral traction” in Scotland for the first time since 2010.
Another issue he highlighted was that both the Conservatives and Labour have said they will not grant a second independence referendum.
However, he went on: “But there is more to say than that. Despite the political dramas of the past six months, the SNP are slightly ahead or at worst tied with Labour in recent voting intention polls for Westminster and Holyrood.
“The gap between Labour and the SNP has certainly shrunk considerably and on these figures it looks likely that Labour will pick up many seats in Scotland next year.
“However, they still face a difficult task to reinstate themselves as the dominant Scottish party at Westminster, let alone at Holyrood.”
Jackson said the assumption of “much metropolitan commentary” is that the SNP “as the Sex Pistols might have sung, are just another party” and will eventually pay the costs of governing for a long period.
“On this view, the SNP will lose office as voters naturally tire of the mistakes of their leaders and the party is held accountable for its policy record,” he said.
But he said the SNP have two distinctive features that are “underestimated” – that they are a permanent party of opposition to the UK Government and exists to further the objective of Scottish independence.
“For the moment at least, the SNP still have a reliable core vote that can be assembled on the basis of a nationalist appeal and which provides some protection from the standard downward spiral of parties with a long record of incumbency,” he said.
Jackson said while the SNP now face their “toughest political times” for more than a decade, they still have a chance of remaining the largest party at both Holyrood and in Scotland at Westminster because they were already so far ahead of their rivals.
He said one conclusion that could be drawn from the analysis presented in the journal is that “contestation around the question of Scottish independence has been deferred rather than defeated".
He said: “Although there is space now in which Labour may insert some reforming energy into the British constitutional system and economic model, the next five to 10 years will provide supporters of independence with further opportunities to build popular support.
“It is significant that independence has taken a lead in the opinion polls at precisely the times when the UK political class has looked at its most discombobulated and incompetent.
“Given the demographic tailwinds now enjoyed by Scottish nationalism, the upper echelon of the Labour Party should consider what those polls will look like if a Labour government is torn apart in office by the sheer scale of Britain's economic predicament, and an emboldened Conservative Party returns to office surfing on right-wing media outrage.”
He added: “Independence does not currently command broad majority support among the Scottish electorate, but the Anglo-Scottish Union is not out of the woods yet.”
