Australians will vote in a referendum later this year that asks for a simple yes or no answer to a question about Indigenous people, but the journey the nation is taking to the ballot box is strewn with obstacles.
In October, voters will decide whether they support the enshrinement of an Indigenous voice to parliament in the constitution, the culmination of years of campaigning by Aboriginal groups for recognition in the nation’s “birth certificate”, as the prime minister, Anthony Albanese, calls it.
The voice would be a group of elected Indigenous representatives who advise the Australian parliament and government on matters relating to Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people. This could include in areas such as jobs, health, housing and justice.
It would operate at a local, regional and national level, on the understanding that policies and life outcomes are better for Indigenous people if they are consulted and involved in decision-making.
Parliament and government would be obliged to consult it on matters that overwhelmingly relate to Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people, but no law could be invalidated based on this consultation.
Crucially, it would mean a change to the country’s constitution which requires a referendum.
The voice is the first in a series of reforms advocates say will help settle Australia’s “unfinished business” with its First Nations. It would be followed by treaty-making and truth-telling.
These three elements – voice, treaty, truth – are key to the Uluru statement from the heart. Presented to the Australian people, the Uluru statement was born from a series of national dialogues involving thousands of Aboriginal people, culminating in a constitutional convention at Uluru in 2017.
The statement was almost immediately rejected by the conservative government at the time. Successive conservative leaders said they would consider legislating for regional voices, but did not support constitutional amendment and would not hold a referendum. Labor was elected in 2022 promising to implement all three elements, starting with the voice, and has pushed ahead with those plans
But there are powerful forces lined up against the voice. On the right, some say it is racist to provide “special rights” for Indigenous people, that the voice won’t deliver practical outcomes and that it will create another layer of bureaucracy.
The far left, including some Indigenous people, want a treaty instead of the voice, as well as a guarantee that any constitutional change will not erode their sovereignty. In the middle there are many Indigenous and non-Indigenous people who don’t have a strong understanding of how the constitution operates, and to whom the idea of a voice to parliament is new and untested.
The bar for success is high. To change Australia’s constitution, a majority of voters in a majority of states must say yes. Australians have rejected most proposals for constitutional amendments. Only eight out of 44 referendums since federation in 1901 have been successful.
This time, other risks are evident. Indigenous people make up only about 3% of the population. In a country where discrimination and disadvantage are endemic in daily life, the prospect of defeat could deeply damage the social wellbeing and mental health of a very vulnerable population, and set the struggle for Indigenous rights back decades.
This week, the “yes” campaign was launched at a “politician-free” event, with a plea to ordinary Australians to find it in their hearts to say yes.
The “yes” campaigners say they are confident the Australian people will support the voice. Polling published last month found that 80% of Indigenous people and 60% of all Australians would vote “yes” to the voice. Every state and territory leader, from both sides of politics, supports the voice, as do religious leadership. This week, an alliance of Christian, Hindu, Sikh, Muslim, Buddhist and Jewish leaders wrote to MPs supporting the voice and urging cross-party cooperation.
The Liberal opposition says it has concerns about the voice that are not being answered. While it is yet to come to a final position, its coalition partner, the Nationals, have already said they do not support it and have told their members to vote no.
Traditionally, referendums have failed without bipartisan support, so this likely represents a major hurdle.
Noel Pearson, one of the Indigenous leaders driving the voice campaign, says he is under no illusions about what is at stake. Asked by the Australian Broadcasting Corporation what he would do if Australians voted no, Pearson said: “A whole generation of Indigenous leadership will have failed because we will have advocated coming together in partnership with government and we would have made an invitation to the Australian people that was repudiated.
“I don’t think we have anything left after that.”
