Unemployment is rising and Australia’s economy is weak – but don’t hit the recession alarm just yet

The rise in unemployment is mostly hitting younger workers, while true recessions have unemployment rising for all workers, Greg Jericho writes. Photograph: Dan Peled/AAP

Next week’s March quarter GDP figures will once again put the spotlight on the weakness of the economy. But questions about a recession are already with us and the answer is rather complex.

Australia’s economy grew just 0.1% in the last quarter of 2023. That is, to be blunt, not a lot. Given that each quarter the growth figures are revised slightly, there is a small worry that next week we could find the December quarter revised to go backwards. If the March quarter then fell, that would mean hello, recession! Population: us!