Right now there is no rear-view mirror. There are only 20 teams, 48 matches and one World Cup trophy ahead. The form guides that got them here are different. The philosophies of the coaches are unique. The chemistry of the squads and the players are algorithms no one can predict. All we know is that they gather on the same line in France this weekend chasing the greatest prize in rugby union.
The mantras from the Australian camp are to soothe critics and reassure fans. Moving in the right direction. Coming together. Starting to click. But words are not deeds.
With a young squad built as much for the 2027 World Cup in Australia as this one, the Wallabies are arch underdogs (the RugbyVision statistical model gives them a 2.1% chance of winning). But coach Eddie Jones believes a “smash and grab” is possible.
Jones is Australia’s best weapon. No coach can better his 82% win rate at World Cups. As Wallabies coach in 2003, only a last-gasp Jonny Wilkinson drop-kick denied him and his team the ultimate prize.
In 2007, as South Africa’s key technical adviser, he won it. In 2015, as coach of Japan, Jones inspired the World Cup’s biggest upset when the Brave Blossoms shocked the Springboks. In 2019, he took England to the final.
This singular focus on World Cup success is why England axed Jones in December. By then he had experimented with 112 players and over 80 coaching staff across seven years in the quest for world domination in 2023.
Australia hired him in January and it has been a rough ride since – coaching staff pushed and jumping, veteran players axed and young punks promoted, meltdowns at media, no victories but lots of “wins”.
Having lost all five warm-up games, Australia probably need to win three out of their four pool games and then three knockout matches to lift the trophy for the first time since 1999. Despite being drawn in the “easier” Pool C, the task is not straightforward. Australia are ranked ninth in the world and will be sternly challenged by Fiji (seventh), Wales (10th) and Georgia (11th) in the pool stages, all of whom will have studied the Wallabies’ recent struggles and sensed blood in the water.
This year’s weirdly lopsided draw is based on World Rugby rankings from December 2020 when England (now eighth) and Wales were top-five sides. Their slide leaves Pools A and B full of heavyweights and means only two current top-five nations can make semi-finals. Ireland (first), South Africa (second), France (third) and New Zealand (fourth) are likely to meet in the quarter-finals, eliminating two. Scotland (fifth) may not make it at all.
That opens up the other side of the draw, giving lower-ranked sides like Australia a clearer run. Argentina (sixth) and Fiji have strong chances of making the last eight. It also sets up the tantalising possibility of Jones’s current and former sides facing off in a quarter-final blockbuster. If there is a team tracking worse than the Wallabies, it’s England. Successful Rugby World Cup or flop? That grudge match may decide it for both teams.
For the Wallabies it starts with Georgia on Saturday (Sunday 2am AEST). The Lelos’ love for rugby hails from the ancient sport of lelo burti (field ball) in which men from rival villages run a heavy pumpkin-sized ball between two creeks, using wrestling and mixed martial arts to carry it to the opposing side. They have evolved it to the point they are pushing for Six Nations inclusion after beating Wales and Italy in 2022.
Australia badly need a convincing win to inject belief but Georgia are no easy beats. This is their fifth World Cup since 2003 and most of their squad play in France’s Top 14. They boast power forwards and brilliant backs, with half-back Vasil Lobzhanidze the linkman. Their spark is 21-year-old wunderkind full-back Davit Niniashvili. Handsome as Pedro Pascal and athletic as Peter Pan, he could be this World Cup’s breakout star.
Jones will have only Georgia on his mind for now but Australia’s second game a week later is the most dangerous. Forged by Drua’s success in Super Rugby, Fiji have won four of their last five and are in white-hot form. If they dazzle as they did in the 30-22 win over England a fortnight ago, the wobbly Wallabies wagon may derail before it gets the momentum to become the juggernaut it must be for finals.
Wales will be breathing fire when they meet Australia in game three. The Red Dragons have won three of their past four Tests against Australia since 2017 (although the margin each time was a try or less) including the 29-25 win at the last World Cup that helped send Australia home after the quarter-finals. If either team has lost a game to Fiji at this point, it could be a sudden-death showdown.
Australia complete their pool stage against Portugal (16th) in a game that could be a cherry before the knockouts or bittersweet farewell, depending on whether the juvenile-but-not-delinquent Wallabies can find a winning habit in the pool games. If they’ve defied the odds and played to their potential, Jones’s joeys could be 4-0 in the World Cup, 5-4 for the season and the dream of a “smash and grab” will be alive.
