The next 48 hours in New Hampshire are crucial, especially when it comes to the undecided or undeclared voters. Known for its independent spirit, the state of New Hampshire has a strong history of unpredictable outcomes, such as how it propelled John McCain to victory over George W. Bush in 2000. In the current race, the recent shakeup could have significant implications.
One of the main beneficiaries of the shakeup is Donald Trump. With the withdrawal of Santas, who was polling at around six percent, it is expected that most of his supporters will now shift their allegiance to Trump. This development strengthens Trump's position and poses a greater challenge for Nikki Haley, who was hoping to make this a two-person race.
Haley's hopes now rest heavily on two factors. Firstly, she is counting on the polls being wrong and secondly, she is relying on a high turnout among the independent or undeclared voters in the state. These voters, who make up nearly half of the electorate in New Hampshire, play a crucial role in the primary. Haley needs their support to have a chance of winning the primary next Tuesday.
However, even if Haley manages to secure a victory in New Hampshire, her path forward becomes more challenging. The state's terrain is relatively favorable to her, but other states in the upcoming primaries have a less favorable environment. Some states have more conservative independent voters, while others limit participation to only registered Republicans. Therefore, a win in New Hampshire is crucial for Haley if she hopes to continue in the race.
The undeclared voters in New Hampshire represent a diverse range of preferences. They include disaffected progressives who do not align with the Democratic Party, libertarians, and moderate voters. Generally, New Hampshire is a moderate, libertarian-leaning state, and most independent voters are looking for an alternative to Donald Trump as the Republican nominee. They want to avoid a Trump versus Biden rematch, though it remains to be seen if their desired outcome will materialize.
Nikki Haley's strengths lie in her support from urban areas, suburban mothers, and college-educated voters. These high-propensity voters are more likely to turn out in every election, which is good news for Haley. However, she currently trails behind in the polls, with a margin of 16 to 20 percent, depending on the poll. New Hampshire has a reputation for late-cycle swings, such as Amy Klobuchar's surge in the Democratic primary in 2020. Haley will be hoping for a similar surge in independent turnout or support in the coming days.
Regarding the recent announcement, 4,000 undeclared voters switched to the Republican Party, which could potentially have an impact. However, it's important to note that many undeclared voters keep their options open and may still lean towards the Democratic Party. Despite this, the endorsement of Donald Trump by Santas is likely to benefit Trump, reinforcing the perception of his inevitability in the race. This outcome could potentially discourage independent voter turnout, which would be detrimental to Nikki Haley's campaign.
As the nation watches and New Hampshire's reputation for independence remains strong, the outcome of the next few days will undoubtedly shape the trajectory of the race.
