Get all your news in one place.
100’s of premium titles.
One app.
Start reading
AAP
AAP
Politics
Colin Brinsden, AAP Economics and Business Correspondent

Uncertainty over jobs data due to Omicron

Economists aren't sure what to expect when the latest labour force figures drop this week. (AAP)

Some uncertainty remains among economists around this week's key labour force figures for January due to the impact of the Omicron COVID-19 variant on activity.

The jobs market has been making a strong rebound from last year's Delta strain lockdowns, which has seen the unemployment rate tumble to a 13-year low of 4.2 per cent.

The Reserve Bank of Australia and the federal government are both predicting the jobless rate to fall below four per cent this year, a level not seen in some 50 years.

However, economists don't expect that to happen just yet.

The Australian Bureau of Statistics will release the January labour force report on Thursday.

It's uncertain whether people gave up looking for work in despair over another virus outbreak, particularly such a highly infectious variant as Omicron.

So even if the January employment numbers are more subdued, a fall in the participation rate - those in work or seeking employment - could actually see another drop in the jobless rate.

Economists' forecasts centre on the unemployment rate nudging down to 4.1 per cent, although expectations range from four per cent to 4.4 per cent.

Predictions for employment point to a flat or unchanged result, but again forecasts range from a 60,000 fall to a 59,000 rise.

The RBA will release the minutes of its February board meeting on Tuesday where it left the cash rate at a record low 0.1 per cent and announced the end of its $350 billion bond buying program.

However, economists doubt the minutes will throw up anything new given the release of the RBA's quarterly statement on monetary policy and governor Philip Lowe's speech at the National Press Club since, as well as his appearance in front of federal politicians last Friday.

At Friday's hearing, Dr Lowe reiterated that a rise in the cash rate this year was plausible at a time of rising inflation and the expected fall in unemployment.

But he also warned the House of Representatives economics committee that raising the cash rate too early could put the economic recovery at risk.

Treasury secretary Steven Kennedy will get the opportunity to give his department's view on the economic outlook when he appears before the Senate's economics committee on Wednesday and as part of the week-long estimates hearings.

Meanwhile, Australian shares look set for a weak opening on Monday after Wall Street stocks dropped sharply on Friday on deepening tensions between the Ukraine and Russia.

Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison warned on Sunday the situation is deteriorating and is reaching "a very dangerous stage".

The Australian Embassy in Kyiv has been evacuated.

In the US on Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.43 per cent to end at 34,738.06 points, while the S&P 500 lost 1.90 per cent at 4,418.64 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 2.78 per cent to 13,791.15.

Australian share futures were down 33 points, or 0.46 per cent, at 7075.

On Friday the Australian benchmark S&P/ASX200 index closed down 71.2 points, or 0.98 per cent, to 7217.3 points.

Sign up to read this article
Read news from 100’s of titles, curated specifically for you.
Already a member? Sign in here
Related Stories
Top stories on inkl right now
Our Picks
Fourteen days free
Download the app
One app. One membership.
100+ trusted global sources.