There will be a new No. 1 in men’s college basketball next week.
North Carolina’s loss to Iowa State Friday is the humbling that had seemingly been looming since the start of the season: A defeat to an unranked foe that again exposed the troubles the Tar Heels have had living up to the expectations set by last year’s run to the national title game.
The case for North Carolina as the nation’s top team entering 2022–23 (as it was in both major polls as well as Sports Illustrated’s rankings) was built far more on the eye test than analytics. It was a dream that the same Heels that electrified the sport last March would bring it consistently this year. UNC entered the season ninth in KenPom’s preseason rankings and underachieved in the opening two weeks, dropping to No. 19 heading into Friday’s game and No. 21 after the loss. The numbers saw a team with plenty of returning talent but plenty of flaws—a group that, for much of 2021–22, had looked more like a bubble team than a title contender.
