The United Nations and other global organisations are bracing for four more years of Donald Trump, who famously tweeted that the 193-member body was “just a club for people to get together, talk and have a good time”.
During his first term, Trump cut off funding to the UN’s health and family planning agencies, withdrew from its cultural organisation Unesco and the Human Rights Council, and raised tariffs on China and long-time allies in defiance of the World Trade Organisation’s rules.
The US is the UN’s biggest single contributor, covering 22 percent of its regular budget.
This week, Trump signalled his direction for the UN by selecting Republican Representative Elise Stefanik as his candidate for UN ambassador.
The fourth-highest ranking House member, Stefanik recently called for a “complete reassessment” of US funding for the UN, including halting support for its Palestinian refugee agency, UNRWA.
President Joe Biden paused the funding after UNRWA fired several staffers in Gaza suspected of taking part in the 7 October attack led by Hamas in 2023.
The Trump 2.0 agenda
Speculation regarding Donald Trump’s future policies is rampant, with observers from Washington and beyond engaging in discussions over what his return to the presidency might mean for the United Nations and global relations.
Historically, Trump’s views have not been consistent. He famously referred to climate change as a hoax and has often supported the fossil fuel industry, yet he has formed ties with environmentally conscious figures like Elon Musk.
While his first administration made substantial investments to expedite the development of a Covid-19 vaccine, he also aligned himself with anti-vaccine activists, such as Robert F Kennedy Jr.
Richard Gowan, UN director at the International Crisis Group, said Trump would likely treat the UN less “as a place to transact serious political business” and more “as a theatre to pursue a conservative global social agenda”.
Multilateralism aversion
Trump’s first term provides insight into his potential policies. He withdrew the US from the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement – a decision Biden later reversed but which Trump could undo again if elected.
Trump also led the US to exit Unesco and the Human Rights Council, arguing they were biased against Israel. Although Biden rejoined both, he opted not to pursue another term on the Human Rights Council.
During his administration, Trump also cut funding to the UN Population Fund over its stance on abortion, despite the agency’s insistence that it remains neutral.
Trump’s scepticism towards multilateralism stood in contrast to UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres’s push for greater cooperation among nations.
Global shift
The international landscape has changed significantly since Trump’s first term in 2017.
New conflicts have erupted in the Middle East, Ukraine and Sudan, and nuclear threats from North Korea and Iran have grown.
However, the UN Security Council has remained largely inactive, struggling with internal divisions among its five permanent members – Britain, China, France, Russia and the US.
Since Trump’s first term began in 2017, global conditions have shifted dramatically.
According to John Bolton, a former national security adviser at Trump’s White House: “It’s really back to Cold War days" with Russia and China providing cover for nations like Iran and North Korea, thereby complicating any diplomatic efforts involving weapons proliferation and conflict resolution.
Bolton – also a former US ambassador to the UN – expects Stefanik will have a “tougher time” because of the range of issues facing the Security Council.
“What had been fairly sleepy during the first Trump term is not going to be sleepy at all in the second Trump term,” he said.
The Security Council’s inaction in response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine – coupled with its failure to produce a strong resolution demanding a ceasefire in Gaza due to US support for Israel – has underscored its limitations.
Despite this, the UN’s institutional framework could prevent any rapid policy shifts, even under Trump.
Known for enjoying the spotlight, Trump may still attend General Assembly sessions, where he has historically drawn global attention.
