Ukrainian troops in Avdiivka are facing severe ammunition shortages as Russian forces continue to tighten their grip on the strategic eastern city. This comes as Russia seeks a morale boost ahead of the second anniversary of its invasion of Ukraine and the upcoming presidential election in March. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is currently in Europe, hoping to garner support from Western allies for military assistance. However, the United States, Ukraine's biggest supporter, has yet to release $60 billion in aid due to political disagreements among American lawmakers.
The situation in Avdiivka is critical, with reports indicating that Russian forces are overwhelming Ukrainian defenses. The city is at risk of falling to Russia, largely due to the fact that Ukrainian forces are running out of artillery ammunition. Street fighting is ongoing in Avdiivka, where Ukrainian troops are vastly outnumbered by Russian forces. The 3rd Assault Brigade of the Ukraine Armed Forces is holding out at the Avdiivka Coke Plant, despite relentless shelling and assaults by Russian warplanes, armor, and infantry.
Russian troops have conducted 33 assaults in Avdiivka over the past 24 hours. The city has been a target since October, but Russian progress has been slow until recently. Avdiivka is heavily fortified with tunnels and concrete fortifications, making it a challenging objective for Russian forces. Capturing the city would provide a timely boost for Moscow and potentially serve as a springboard for further advances into the region.
Avdiivka, which had a prewar population of around 31,000, now lies in ruins with fewer than 1,000 people remaining. Aerial footage from last December revealed the devastating aftermath of the conflict, with the bodies of approximately 150 soldiers, many wearing Russian uniforms, scattered along tree lines. However, experts suggest that taking Avdiivka would be more of a symbolic victory for Russia and would not significantly alter the front line, which has seen little movement in recent months.
The Institute for the Study of War, a Washington think tank, stated that a potential Russian capture of Avdiivka would offer the Kremlin informational and political victories, but would not result in rapid operational advances. It is unlikely that Russian forces would make significant gains beyond Avdiivka if they were to capture the city. Instead, it would set the stage for further limited tactical gains.
The situation in Avdiivka remains tense, with Ukrainian officials not ruling out the possibility of a withdrawal from the city. The international community continues to monitor the situation closely as the conflict in Ukraine shows no signs of abating.
