Mali recently severed relations with Ukraine as Ukrainian-backed Tuareg rebels killed at least 84 Russian soldiers in a well-executed ambush.
It’s unclear whether Ukrainian Special Operations Forces were directly involved in the assault, although past instances of Ukrainian forces operating in Africa make it likely.
Ukraine’s rationale for backing the Tuareg rebels is simple. Russian mercenaries, formally known as the Wagner Group, are supporting the military junta in Mali, along with several other African governments and rebel groups.
The potential costs of such actions are high. Niger also cut off ties with Ukraine. The Ukrainian government, however, likely calculated that the damage to Russia’s war effort and potential gains to its own in terms of morale outweighed these costs.
Russian forces abroad
Russia’s use of mercenaries abroad is not a new development. The Wagner Group has been active in multiple war zones around the world, with its roles in Syria and Ukraine receiving considerable media attention.
Read more: What the Wagner Group revolt in Russia could mean for the war in Ukraine
The newly rechristened Africa Corps, the successor of Wagner, is currently operating in several African countries.
Wagner and other similar mercenary groups have operated in Africa since at least 2017. Prior to 2022, these operations were tied to either economic gain or political interest-building and provided plausible deniability to Russia since they were ostensibly independent mercenaries.
What is different now, however, is that Russia finds itself in a protracted war with Ukraine, and Wagner Group’s involvement in the conflict dispelled the fragile myth of their autonomy. Russia’s goals with Wagner and other mercenaries largely remain the same, but have taken on new importance since the start of the current phase of the Russia-Ukraine war.
What Russia gains from Africa
What are those goals? Russia’s operations in Africa give it considerable power and influence as it wages war in Ukraine. On the economic side, for example, the Wagner Group’s operations in Sudan effectively allowed Russia to plunder the country’s gold.
That Sudanese gold became critically important to the Russian war effort, helping it return the ruble to the gold standard. Russia, furthermore, can use gold to overcome western economic sanctions and acquire weapons it needs abroad, such as drones from Iran.
It’s not just gold that Russia’s acquiring in Africa. It has gained other resources, including diamonds, as well as new markets to help overcome the sanctions.
The political gains that Russia makes in Africa are also important to its war effort. Russia, since the war began, has sought to frame its invasion of Ukraine as a result of NATO provocations that forced the country to defend its interests.
The problems with that argument aside, it’s true that Ukraine’s biggest backers are in the Global North. The rest of the world is much less supportive of Ukraine.
Undermining support for Ukraine
Wagner Group operations in Africa also indirectly undermine the alliance behind Ukraine.
Key to Ukraine’s ongoing ability to wage war is the support it has received from its European allies. Many of these countries, such as Czechia and Greece, have stepped up when Ukraine’s largest benefactor, the United States, has faltered in its support.
For European countries to support Ukraine effectively, however, near-unanimous support is required. One area that promises to fracture European Union unity, however, is migration.
The acts perpetrated by the Africa Corps, including human rights abuses and massacres, cause large numbers of people to flee their countries. This is notably the case in Sudan, where Russian-backed troops are creating one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises.
Italy has previously gone on record as stating that Russia is using migrants to punish those countries that oppose its efforts in Ukraine.
Ukrainian efforts a morale boost
Ukrainian Special Operations Forces, by challenging Russian efforts abroad, undermine Russian gains in the above areas. As noted, however, Ukrainian actions also undermine its credibility in Africa.
Given the cost of its actions, Ukrainian authorities have seemingly prioritized a key factor amid the ongoing war: morale.
The war in Ukraine doesn’t appear to be ending soon. Ukraine’s limited ability to make immediate advances on the battlefield — prior to its recent incursion into Russia — eroded Ukrainian morale. While Ukraine possessed a glut of volunteers at the start of the war, it is now facing personnel shortages, in part brought on by the protracted nature of the war.
The majority of Ukrainians still believe in continuing the fight against Russia. What they need, however, is hope.
In causing disproportionate losses to Russian soldiers in Africa, the Ukrainian Special Operations Forces give the soldiers and the people of Ukraine some hope amid a largely stagnant war at home.
James Horncastle does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organisation that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.
This article was originally published on The Conversation. Read the original article.
