Ukrainian forces have pushed back Vladimir Putin’s troops on three fronts away from Kyiv, British defence chiefs said on Tuesday.
They published a map showing the “likely” advances of Ukraine’s army after the Russian president’s plan for a lightning invasion to seize the capital within days failed.
Ukrainian troops have pushed back Russian military units, many hampered by poor supplies, damaged equipment and low morale:
- From the north west of Kyiv north towards the Belarus border.
- From the north east of Kyiv north towards Chernihiv and beyond.
- From the east of Kyiv eastwards toward Romny.
- From Zhytomyr north towards the Belarus border.
However, they also warned that “low-levelling” fighting was likely to continue in coming days as remaining Russian forces are driven out.
Many Russian units retreating have suffered such heavy losses, they added, that they would need “significant” re-equipping before Vladimir Putin can redeploy them to the east of the country.
The latest intelligence briefing from the Ministry of Defence was put out on Tuesday morning as the world is still reeling from the discovery of war crimes in Bucha, near the capital, where around 300 civilians were found murdered.
There are fears that more such atrocities will be found as Ukrainian troops enter more towns and villages.
The MoD said: “Ukrainian forces have retaken key terrain in the north of Ukraine, after denying Russia the ability to secure its objectives and forcing Russian forces to retreat from the areas around Chernihiv and North of Kyiv.
“Low-level fighting is likely to continue in some parts of the newly recaptured regions, but diminish significantly over this week as the remainder of Russian forces withdraw.
“Many Russian units withdrawing from northern Ukraine are likely to require significant re-equipping and refurbishment before being available to redeploy for operations in eastern Ukraine.”
Two-thirds of the Russian battalion tactical groups near the capital are believed to have pulled back north towards Belarus, according to a US defence official.
In the south, heavy fighting has been taking place in the besieged city of Mariupol, with unconfirmed reports that some Ukrainian marines had surrendered amid shortages of ammunition, and having defended for weeks the city which has been cut off from running water and electricity, with low supplies of food and medicine.
However, there were also reports that some Russian troops north of Mariupol, on the Azov Sea, were heading further north towards Donetsk which is one of two areas held by Moscow-backed separatists in the Donbas in eastern Ukraine.
Mr Putin is expected to try to seize more of the Donbas, which includes the other breakaway area of Luhansk, after his plan to capture Kyiv and swathes of Ukraine within days of launching the invasion on February 24 failed.
US President Joe Biden’s national security adviser Jake Sullivan said the Kremlin probably plans to deploy tens of thousands of soldiers in eastern Ukraine as it shifts its focus to the country’s south and east.
“At this juncture we believe Russia is revising its war aims” to focus on “eastern and parts of southern Ukraine rather than target most of the territory,” he said in a briefing at the White House.
The goal was likely to “surround and overwhelm” Ukrainian forces in the region, he said. “Russia could then use any tactical success it achieves to propagate a narrative of progress and mask ... prior military failure.”
Ukraine’s defence officials said Russian forces attacked the southern city of Mykolaiv with cluster munitions banned by the Geneva convention and whole blocks of civilian buildings, including a children’s hospital, came under fire.
Russian military chiefs are also believed to be planning an amphibious attack on the historic port city of Odesa on the Black Sea.
