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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
World
Dan Sabbagh Defence and security editor

Ukrainian civilian casualties surged by 26% in 2025, say researchers

Aftermath of Russian air strike on residential area in Kramatorsk.
An average of 4.8 Ukrainian civilians were reported killed or injured in each Russian strike last year, the research found. Photograph: Tommaso Fumagalli/EPA

Civilian casualties in Ukraine caused by bombing soared by 26% during 2025, reflecting increased Russian targeting of cities and infrastructure in the country, according a global conflict monitoring group.

Action on Armed Violence (AOAV) said 2,248 civilians were reported killed and 12,493 injured by explosive violence in Ukraine according to English-language reports – with the number of casualties an incident rising significantly.

An average of 4.8 civilians were reported killed or injured in each strike, 33% more than in 2024, with the worst attack taking place in Dnipro on 24 June. Russian missiles hit a passenger train, apartments and schools, killing 21 and injuring 314, including 38 children.

Iain Overton, executive director of AOAV, said the figures showed “Ukraine fits a wider collapse of restraint that is now visible across multiple wars”, and respect for the distinction of proportionality in war “has broken”.

Deliberately targeting civilians or civilian infrastructure in a way that is excessive to direct military advantage is a war crime, but experts have said the principle of proportionality is at breaking point across multiple conflicts, including Gaza, Sudan and Congo as well as Ukraine.

“We have watched this erosion unfold over years, from Homs to Aleppo to Mariupol and on to Gaza. What seems different now is the sense that there is no longer a functioning international rules-based order capable of ever holding those responsible to account,” Overton argued.

Missile and drone attacks took place almost nightly across Ukraine during 2025, and continued into 2026, leaving millions of people with limited or no access to electricity, heating and water. A total of 805 drones and 13 missiles targeted Ukraine on the night of 9 September, the largest air raid recorded in the war.

AOAV monitors civilian casualty figures based on English-language reports of incidents of explosive violence globally. Though the measure is consistent, it undercounts of the true numbers of civilians killed and wounded, partly because media accounts in one language are inevitably incomplete.

Globally, civilian casualties dropped 26% from a 10-year high recorded by the monitoring group in 2024, largely because of the October ceasefire in Gaza, previously the most deadly and dangerous conflict for civilians. Civilian casualties recorded by AOAV were 14,024 in Gaza in 2025, 40% lower than the year before.

Israel’s military at the end of last month indicated it accepted that the death toll compiled by authorities in Gaza was broadly accurate. A security official acknowledged that 70,000 Palestinians had been killed since October 2023, in line with the latest Gaza health ministry total of 72,061 killed and 171,715 injured.

During 2025, 25,718 Palestinians were recorded as killed by the health ministry and 62,854 injured, demonstrating that the English-language press reports monitored represent an undercount of the reality on the ground.

According to AOAV, 45,358 civilian casualties were recorded worldwide during 2025, down from 61,353 the year before. Those figures comprised 17,589 civilians reported killed and 27,769 injured by explosive violence of all types.

The country responsible for the most killed and wounded by explosive violence was Israel, marginally ahead of Russia.

Israel’s involvement in multiple conflicts in 2025 meant that it was recorded as causing 35% of all reported casualties against 32% for Russia. Wars in Sudan and Myanmar were the next most deadly, where total recorded casualty numbers were 5,438 and 3,178 respectively.

“Across Ukraine, Myanmar, Gaza and Sudan, the message is the same,” said Overton. “When impunity becomes normalised, war crimes stop being shocking exceptions and begin to resemble a method of warfare.”

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