Ukraine will not be offered a timeline with specific dates by which it can join Nato at its summit in Vilnius next month but instead may be offered a shorter route when an offer of membership is made. The proposal, reflecting a gathering consensus of key partners in the western defence alliance, will come as a disappointment to President Volodymyr Zelenskiy.
Nato members, but outside formal Nato structures, will also offer post-conflict security guarantees to Ukraine, which are likely to take the shape of broad commitments to protect Ukraine from assaults by Russia. They are also expected to continue to provide ammunition and to help the Ukrainian armed forces become more convergent with Nato. But the commitments are likely to take a broad high level form rather than be specific offers of weaponry.
The countries at the centre of the negotiations said it is normal in the run-up to a summit for Nato members still to be in disagreement. However, they hoped a possible commitment that Ukraine would not have to meet conditions set out in a laborious membership application plan (MAP) and instead gain near automatic membership once an invitation is offered would be recognised as an upgrade from anything offered to the country before. Finland and Sweden have been offered Nato membership without needing to complete a MAP.
It is also likely that Nato will upgrade its current political relationship with Ukraine from the current Nato-Ukraine commission to a Nato-Ukraine council, an upgrade that gives Ukraine a higher status in joint meetings. One diplomat conceded the upgrade was unlikely to mean much to the average Ukrainian soldier fighting on the frontline but insisted it had a real value.
Juliette Smith, the US ambassador to Nato, said an upgrade to a council format “would shift the fundamental dynamics”, since Ukraine would be meeting as one of 32 attendees, as opposed to a format of 31 plus one. This would change the potential agenda items, something the US would welcome, she said.
All sides have long accepted that Ukraine cannot become a Nato member in the middle of a conflict but Kyiv, backed by Baltic states and Poland, would like a date or a timeline by which it could join once the conflict ends. A Vilnius commitment to membership has been proposed.
The absence of a date or clear conditions that Ukraine would need to meet to gain automatic Nato status will lead to Ukrainian accusations that Nato is doing little more than re-offering the promise of membership made to Ukraine at the Nato Bucharest summit in April 2008 when Nato said it had agreed Ukraine and Georgia will become members of Nato. Western countries said it would be perfectly understandable for Ukraine to be angry but insist the wording, coupled with the security commitments, can be an improvement.
The need to maintain Nato unity at such a critical time is seen as paramount, with Vladimir Putin likely to be the only beneficiary of an acrimonious Nato summit in which different sides fall out over Ukraine’s future Nato status. Full Nato membership gives members the protection umbrella of Nato’s Article 5 commitment to collective self-defence.
An attempt to require all Nato members to ensure 2% of GDP is spent on defence is also expected at the summit.
The run-up to the summit was dealt a blow when the Turkish president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, said Sweden should not expect a change of attitude from Ankara on its Nato membership bid at the summit next month unless it prevents anti-Turkey protests in Stockholm.
Turkey cannot approach Sweden’s Nato bid positively while “terrorists” were protesting in Stockholm, and Turkey’s position would be made clear once again in talks with Swedish officials in Ankara on Wednesday, Erdogan was quoted as telling reporters on a flight returning from Azerbaijan on Tuesday.
Erdogan made his comments before officials from Turkey, Sweden, Finland and Nato met on Wednesday in Ankara for talks to try to overcome Turkish objections that have delayed Sweden’s membership bid.
Smith at a briefing insisted Sweden was ready now for membership.
Turkey has also been looking for the US Congress to lift its ban on the sale of F-16 jets to Ankara, but the US is looking for clear sequencing that sees Sweden’s Nato admission is agreed before the sales ban can be lifted.
