Ukrainian leaders will choose the time and place of their eagerly-awaited counter-offensive against Russian forces, Western officials insisted today.
Kyiv troops are tipped to launch a major attack on Kremlin soldiers who invaded their country 14 months ago.
Sources said that while Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s regime was coming under “internal” and “external” pressure over the much-anticipated offensive, Kyiv should decide when it is right.
“It will be down to the Ukrainians to pick the time of their choosing and a place of their choosing. There is also a lot of urgency that, ‘We need to get on with this’, and that sort of external pressure,” a Western official said.
“There will be pressure both internally and externally for the Ukrainians to get on with it.
“But they will choose the time which is best for them and gives them the most likelihood of success.”
The official said the conflict had hit a “relatively static period” in recent weeks, with “incremental” and “marginal gains being made by Russians” in the devastated Bakhmut area, “but with the Ukrainians still defending and inflicting heavy casualties upon the Russians”.
Practice for the counter-offensive would prove “vital” when it is triggered, they added.
“Training and rehearsal for this sort of activity is absolutely vital,” they said.
“The more time you spend training and rehearsing for your operations, the more likely you are to succeed.
“There will be a balance between the need to go soon - perhaps when the Russians are at their weakest - balanced against the need to get your own force in the right position with the right logistics and right skills to move forwards.”
Earlier, the UK Ministry of Defence issued an intelligence update suggesting Russia may have switched soldiers from fighting around a key Ukrainian battleground as it reinforces troops in Bakhmut.
Vladimir Putin’s armed forces are making “creeping advances” around the city, the MoD suggested.
“Heavy fighting has continued along the Donbas front line. However, there is a realistic possibility that Russia has reduced troop numbers and is decreasing offensive action around Donetsk city, most likely to divert resources towards the Bakhmut sector,” said the MoD.
“In Bakhmut, Russian MoD and Wagner Group forces continue to make creeping advances.”
It added: “For both sides, the exact sequencing of any major drawdown of their units around Bakhmut has become a critical question, with Ukraine wanting to free-up an offensive force while Russia likely aspires to regenerate an operational reserve.”
The Western official dismissed claims Russia was on the verge of gaining air superiority in the conflict.
They insisted Kremlin warplanes were flying close to Russian-occupied areas rather than launching bombing raids over Kyiv-controlled regions.
“The Russians aren’t in a position to gain air superiority over Ukraine at the moment - they’ve not shown their ability to do that, which is why they are standing off and launching missiles into Ukraine rather than trying to put aircraft over the top,” they said.
“They’re quite risk averse, the Russian air force, and have certainly stayed over the occupied territories and don’t stray over to the areas which Ukraine controls.”
They added: “We don't see there’s any danger the Ukrainians will lose air superiority.
“The Russians’ inability to really degrade the Ukrainian air defence network has been quite marked.”
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