The world is now witness to a new phase in the Ukraine war. The attack on the Kerch bridge and the subsequent retaliatory Russian missiles strikes on Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities indicate that the war is escalating. But just how far will this escalation go and is a full-scale nuclear exchange – however unthinkable – on the cards at some future point?
It is coming to be understood that the war in Ukraine needs to be prevented from assuming proportions that are dangerous for the entire world – and not just for Ukraine. One argument advanced by US president Joe Biden last week is that the west should offer the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, an “off ramp” – that is, a way out for him so that he can call a ceasefire that appears to offer Russia a degree of military success in Ukraine that Putin can take to his people and sell as a “victory”. But it seems to be a pious hope. Putin, it is becoming increasingly clear, will have to be forced onto an off ramp rather than merely being offered one.
The Kerch bridge is Putin’s bridge. He promised the people of Crimea that he would build it soon after Russia annexed the region in 2014. He found the $US3.7 billion (£3.35 billion) that it took to build it and he drove the first vehicle over the bridge when it opened in 2018.
