What had been suspected for some time has now come out into the open: China has “concerns” about Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. While this is hardly a big surprise, the source and venue of this admission is. Few would have expected Vladimir Putin himself to make such a statement – and perhaps even less so at the annual summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO).
Why is it significant that Putin himself admits to China’s concerns? Given the enormous military setbacks that the Russian president has suffered over the past few weeks, losing some 8,000 sq km of previously occupied Ukrainian territory, this is a further indication that Russia can no longer pretend its actions have no impact on its closest allies.
China has benefited from discounted Russian oil and gas imports, but its main overland trade routes to Europe – via Kazakhstan and Russia – have been disrupted. Increasing inflation worldwide and the likelihood of a global recession, too, must weigh on an export-oriented economy such as China. Beijing may appreciate, in a political sense, the pressure that Moscow’s energy blackmail puts on the west, but economically it has always favoured stability in the global economy. This has been deeply upset by the Russian aggression against Ukraine, the consequences of which remain unpredictable in their depth and longevity.
