When Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine at the end of February, the stock prices of many of the world's biggest arms manufacturers spiked.
As the first Russian tanks rolled across the border, investors flocked to companies, including Raytheon, Northrop Grumman, Thales, Lockheed Martin and General Dynamics.
However, the demand created by the war has yet to translate into big increases in revenue for the major defence contractors.
What weapons is Ukraine getting?
Billions of dollars worth of military hardware has already been shipped to Ukraine from all over the world, including from Australia.
The United States, alone, has provided more than $US3 billion ($4.1 billion) in military aid, and last week President Joe Biden asked Congress for about $US20 billion more to last through September.
NATO countries and Western allies, including Canada and Australia, have lined up to help.
The Australian Defence Force's contribution so far has included six M777 towed howitzers and 20 Bushmaster four-wheel-drive armoured vehicles, tactical decoys, uncrewed aerial and uncrewed ground systems, rations and medical supplies.
Other weapons delivered or on their way include tanks, air-defence systems, howitzers, guided anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles, helicopters, armoured Humvees and personnel carriers, drones, small arms, command-detonated Claymore anti-personnel mines and more.
Most famously, Ukraine has received — and reportedly made effective use of — large shipments of high-tech, self-guided and shoulder-fired Javelin anti-tank missiles.
The Javelins are sought-after because of their sophisticated tracking systems, which allow users to take cover immediately after firing, and their ability to hit targets from above.
Since the beginning of February, the US committed to giving Ukraine 5,500 Javelin systems, which are produced by US defence contractors Raytheon and Lockheed Martin and are each worth about $US178,000.
"Saint Javelin" has become a meme in Ukraine and, during a tour of Lockheed Martin's factory, Mr Biden said Ukrainian parents were naming their children "Javelin" or "Javelina" because of the weapons' successes.
Donor nations running down inventories
Rather than buying new supplies, most of this military hardware was coming out of existing holdings, said Marcus Hellyer, a senior analyst with the Australian Strategic Policy Institute.
"That may be stuff that they have in storage … or it could be stuff that is actually frontline holdings," Dr Hellyer said.
"It looks like Germany, for example, is pulling retired armoured vehicles out of storage and refurbishing them and sending them.
"When I look at what Australia has shipped, some of that stuff was probably being used by the ADF, because we don't actually have much holdings.
"So it's not being produced, specifically, as new orders to go to Ukraine."
Dr Hellyer said no country had unlimited inventory and they would need to order more eventually.
The West's stocks of guided weapons, especially, were being depleted "at a great rate", he said.
"They will need new contracts with industry to backfill inventory, and keep supply going to Ukraine," he said.
"What seems to be the case is it will take several years before they can get new weapons.
According to the Washington-based Centre for International Strategic Studies think-tank, the US has given Ukraine about a third of its total inventory of Javelins and a quarter of its Stinger anti-aircraft missiles and it will take three or four years to replace them.
"It's actually hard to spend money quickly in the defence sector," Dr Hellyer said.
"Because, if things aren't in production, it can take years to set up production lines.
"[Human-operated] portable missiles have hundreds of components in there, which you need to source, so it can take a long time, even to just boost production on an existing system."
Dr Hellyer added that there would not be one-for-one backfilling for a lot of the older equipment being donated, but countries would likely replace it with more contemporary hardware, such as the Javelin missiles.
He said a number of European countries, such as Germany, had said they were going to increase defence spending.
"They were meant to be spending 2 per cent of GDP already, according to their NATO commitments, but were falling short. So, now that commitment has been reinvigorated," Dr Hellyer said.
The rapid consumption of, particularly, the Javelin missiles has prompted concerns about the United States' stockpile if a conflict erupts elsewhere.
Pentagon press secretary John Kirby said this week that America’s military readiness was not dependent on one system.
Mr Kirby said that, every time the Pentagon developed a package of weapons and systems to send to Ukraine, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and the department assessed the impact on readiness.
"It's not about counting, say, Javelins and being able to say that, when you reach a certain level, then all your readiness is gone," he said.
"The Javelin has an anti-armour capability, so we judge it all as a conglomerate of what's our ability to meet this particular mission set, realising that a Javelin isn't the only capability you have against armour."
Who will be the biggest beneficiaries?
Once the US and other countries begin to restock, Dr Hellyer said, it would be the companies that produce guided weapons — such as Raytheon and Lockheed Martin — that would be the biggest beneficiaries.
"It's likely that orders have already been placed with Western arms manufacturers to start producing those weapons," he said.
Raytheon's chief executive, Greg Hayes, told an earnings call last week that the company did not expect any increased revenue this year as a result of replenishment of stocks sent to the Ukraine.
"We'll ramp-up production, what we can this year, but I would expect, again, this is going to be a '23, '24 where we actually see orders come in for the larger replenishments, both on Stinger as well as on Javelin, which have also been very successful in theatre," he said.
During the call, Mr Hayes also revealed the war had actually negatively affected the fortunes of the company, which also provides civil aeronautical services.
The sanctions imposed on Russia meant Raytheon could no longer operate there, reducing its total revenue by about $US750 million, and also ruling out suppliers of some key materials and components.
Lockheed Martin chief executive James Taiclet said in a recent CNBC interview that demand for the Javelin and other weapon systems would increase broadly over time because of the Russian invasion.
He said the company was working "to get our supply chain ramped-up".
"We have the ability to meet current production demands, are investing in increased capacity and are exploring ways to further increase production as needed," Lockheed Martin said in a statement to AP.
What opportunities are there for Australia?
In 2018, the federal government announced it was making the development of the local defence industry a priority, with the aim of making Australia one of the top 10 exporters in the world.
Australia's defence exports were $2.7 billion in 2020-21, down from $5.3 billion the year before.
Receipts in the first quarter of 2021-22 were nearly $1.8 billion.
Dr Hellyer said the Australian industry only manufactured a few "complete platforms" such as entire weapons, vehicles or ships.
"We're gearing-up our shipbuilding industry, but that's not really something of any use to Ukraine," he said.
"The only military vehicles we make at the moment are the Bushmaster and Hawkei.
"We do have the ability to make ammunition for small arms, bullets and some slightly larger rounds, but that's the kind of stuff that's pretty easily available on the global market, and a lot more cheaply than we can make it.
"So, probably, that's not something that Ukraine would be seeking from us."
According to Dr Hellyer, the Australian defence industry does manufacture components for larger systems, such as the Joint Strike Fighter F-35, which is assembled in the US by Lockheed Martin.
"It's possible the Australian industry could be supplying components into things produced in the US or in Europe that could eventually go to Ukraine, but it's very hard to have visibility of that," he said.
Dr Hellyer said an option could be for French company Thales, which makes Australia's Bushmaster and Hawkei vehicles at a factory in Bendigo, to make more for Ukraine.
"Ukraine seems to like them and has asked for more," he said.
However, he added, the army had about 900 Bushmasters "so it's probably got a few more that it can provide before it starts running low".
Thales Australia did not respond to the ABC's requests for comment.
ABC/AP
