Some 265 soldiers of the Azov Brigade surrendered at Mariupol yesterday — at least 50 gravely injured. The rest are in captivity and some seem destined for a grotesque show trial.
Russia’s win at Mariupol is still not complete — they have yet to clear the labyrinthine bunkers of the Azovstal steelworks. This will be the icon of a 21st century Pyrrhic victory. Russian troops have seized a major city and port — but it is a charnel house and strategically almost worthless.
Meanwhile the fighting goes on — the diminished Russian force of about 60,000 gaining ground in the western Donbas, a couple of villages, or a mile-and-a-half a day. Ukrainians are nibbling ground back — even reaching the border again north of Kharkiv. But they lack the critical mass and overwhelming firepower to make a major dent in the Russian presence in Donbas. However, Britain’s defence chief Admiral Tony Radakin told a select band of journalists this week that it was clear “Putin is losing”, though he gave little supporting evidence. His defence intelligence staff have been more cautious, declaring “things are very finely balanced”.
This reflects the sense of uncertainty among Nato and EU principals — the US, UK, France, Germany among them — about how far they are willing to commit to a war and crisis likely to last years.
Ukraine is both the heart of a very nasty, very local war, and an increasingly potent element in a global crisis of resource and supply — summed up in the three ingredients of fuel, food, and fertiliser. There is a major crisis in the availability of diesel fuel, as acute as that in gas and crude oil.
The hold-up in exports of grain, maize and rape seed from Ukraine and parts of Russia threatens privation and upheaval in Egypt, Tunisia, Lebanon, Yemen, UAE and touches Pakistan, India and China. This is a storm that can only get bigger.
Ukraine and Russia alike are now threatened with ruin. On Russia’s state television, former Colonel Mikhail Khodarenok declared “the Ukrainian armed forces are able to arm a million people. But (US) lend-lease is starting, EU is a reality. The situation for us frankly will get worse.”
This blunt speaking is refreshing, for the Russians and the Western allies. We are in this for the long haul, both as a necessity for global security — and a fundamental obligation.
