In just 100 days Russian invaders have turned Ukraine’s cities into hellscapes, killed thousands and torn families apart.
Ferocious fighting is now concentrated on a 600-mile eastern front, leaving the capital of Kyiv safe for the time being.
Thousands of Russian troops were pushed back, leaving behind a trail of shattered, brutalised and murdered civilians. More than 10,000 war crimes have been alleged, including rape, murder, torture and abduction.
Russia is tightening its grip on Severodonetsk in Donbas, whilst throughout Ukraine 100 die daily and 500 are wounded.
But Ukraine’s ferocious defence has destroyed the Kremlin’s prediction of a quick victory.
1. Vladimir Putin
Crazy dream of past
Security sources believe it highly likely that the Russian President, 69, is seriously ill and needs regular medical attention.
His puffy face and frequent disappear-ance from public view have sparked cancer rumours.
He spends much of his time in his huge mansion outside Moscow and is accompanied by doctors wherever he goes. It is possible the embittered ex-KGB man’s obsession with recreating the strength of the old Soviet Union has been influenced by illness.
His unhinged assertion that Ukraine is full of Nazis who are threatening Russia defies belief. One security expert said: “Putin’s absences and appearance point towards illness and paranoia.
“This would likely have a serious effect on his decisions.”
2. Conflict progress
Now it's a race against time
The invasion began with widespread strikes followed by a massive armoured push towards Kyiv.
Ukraine fought a brilliant defence, smashing Moscow’s tanks with western-supplied missiles and bombing them from drones.
Hundreds of tanks were blown up, forcing Moscow to withdraw. But their retreat revealed Russian atrocities with hundreds of dead civilians piled into mass graves.
Almost 1,200 Russian tanks have now been destroyed together with 200 planes. Around 30,000 Russian soldiers are dead.
Tens of thousands of civilians have died – 20,000 in Mariupol. The fight has now switched east and Ukraine is struggling to hold a slow Russian advance.
America is sending rockets that may outrange Russian artillery. But it’s a race against time. If Russia’s attack on Severodonestk succeeds it will control all Luhansk, the smaller of two regions in Donbas.
Total control of industrial Donbas and the southern coast would be devastating to Ukraine.
3. Volodymyr Zelensky
Hero in a green t-shirt
The former comic’s calm defiance on TV, dressed in a green military teeshirt has become an emblem of Ukrainian strength.
In the days following the invasion he looked exhausted, his voice cracking with emotion.
But within a week he morphed into a warrior, refusing to flee as Russian hit squads moved in on him.
He answered a US rescue offer with: “I don’t need a ride - I need ammunition.” Fake Russian news about him fleeing was met with selfie footage of him in Kyiv saying: “The president is here, our troops are here, the citizens are here. We are all here to protect the independence of our country. Glory to Ukraine!”
His standing up to Putin has bolstered Ukrainians in the face of grotesque violence.
Born into a Jewish family, the 44-year-old grew up speaking Russian and Ukrainian and graduated in law before becoming an actor.
Clever use of social media launched his political career in 2018 and he became the country’s sixth president.
4. Refugees
Millions seeking safety
Six million fled at the beginning of the war although two million have since returned.
A further eight million have been displaced within Ukraine.
The Pew Centre research organisation said at the outset: “Russia’s invasion has created one of the biggest refugee crises of modern times.
“There are now almost as many Ukrainian refugees as there were Afghan refugees fleeing the Taliban in 2001.” The UK is processing tens of thousands of applications for resettlement under the Homes for Ukraine campaign.
More than 100,000 people have offered rooms. More than 26,000 Ukrainians have arrived here to take up the offer and a further 34,000 have arrived via family visas.=
But the Government scheme has hit problems and there have been painfully slow delays in processing applications.
5. World's sanctions
Taking time to work
Russia has become the world’s most-sanctioned country with 5,000 sweeping bans slapped on it and its key figures.
The US has launched more than 1,000 restrictions, hitting Moscow’s ability to trade and the finances of its leaders and lawmakers.
Companies refusing to do business in Russia including McDonalds, Coca Cola, KFC , BP and Shell.
Russian transport has been crippled with flight bans. But the sanctions which will eventually cripple Putin are flooding his short- term war coffers through increased oil and gas prices. It is thought an extra £76 billion has been pumped in.
But more than half of Russians gave suffered a lowering in earnings and unemployment is rising. Experts believe sanctions will eventually affect Moscow’s ability to buy weapons.
6. Likely outcomes
War may rage for years
What began as a disorganised invasion harassed by well-trained guerilla defenders has become a more conventional conflict.
Russia has suffered huge losses but Putin believes this is unimportant.
War, which began in the east in 2014, could rage for years more at a much more bloodier cost.
Missile strikes against western Ukraine are likely to increase as Moscow tries to stop military supplies. Western naval support to escort merchant ships from Ukraine would be extremely risky. And if Russia cuts off Ukraine from the sea that will be devastating. NATO would have to rethink its policy of not having hands-on involvement.
A former UK military intelligence officer said: “Only one man knows Russia’s next move. Those around him who know he is deluded are either not listened to or are too intimidated to speak.”
