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The Guardian - UK
The Guardian - UK
Comment
Luke Cooper

Ukraine’s economy has greater staying power than Russia’s, but the US mineral deal shows how fragile its advantage is

Scott Bessent and Yulia Svyrydenko signing pieces of paper, with the US and Ukrainian flags behind them.
The US treasury secretary Scott Bessent and Ukraine’s deputy prime minister Yulia Svyrydenko sign the minerals deal in Washington, 30 April 2025. Photograph: Yulia Svyrydenko/Facebook/Reuters

Despite Russia’s occupation of its territory, missile attacks on its infrastructure and the enormous human costs of the war, Ukraine’s economy has been impressively resilient. Its effective military resistance against a much stronger adversary is in fact underpinned by this successful economic management. Rather than face institutional sclerosis or even collapse, Ukraine’s state capacity has been strengthened by the conflict. Through a combination of tax revenue collection and substantial networks of voluntary fundraising, the state has dramatically increased the size of its armed forces, invested in defence production and maintained a decent level of public infrastructure.

State spending on soldiers’ wages, infrastructure and logistics – including public sector procurement from private firms – has had a positive knock-on effect, supporting demand in the civilian market economy. Soldiers on the frontline earn well above the national average wage. An innovative military industrial complex, combining traditional state-owned enterprises with an ecosystem of drone startups, has been developed. These policies have stabilised the Ukrainian economy and directed it to the goal of the country’s basic survival.

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